· Within ten years, major changes in the automotive industry are coming soon

Goldman Sachs released the 2025 automotive industry forecast report, major changes are coming soon!

Recently, Goldman Sachs released a report on the automotive industry in 2025, the global automotive industry will soon undergo a huge change, and technology is the driving force of this change. By 2025, the automotive and automotive industries will all be different.
The first four key themes shape this change in the next decade, the automotive industry will undergo a profound change: cars, manufacturers, consumers will witness this significant change. Technology will guide this change, but four key themes will shape the change: 2025 cars will be more environmentally friendly, convenient, safe and affordable.
Environmental consumer and regulator concerns about climate change put pressure on automakers to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. The greenhouse gas emissions of the transportation industry account for 22% of global greenhouse gas emissions. From 1999 to 2035, carbon dioxide emissions will increase by 1.75 times. (Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry of Japan)
Traffic conditions in cities that are growing in convenience are deteriorating. When the car is idle for 95% of the time, the cost of owning the car is also high. Therefore, how to match cars and users who need car services more efficiently becomes a business opportunity.
From 2010 to 2025, the world urban population will increase by 50%.
Japanese citizens spend an average of 30 hours a year on traffic jams. (Source: Ministry of Internet and Communications, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, Japan)
Safely reducing traffic accidents has always been a priority for the automotive industry, but the aging global population has also increased security requirements.
In 2025, 10% of the world's population will be over 65 years of age.  
Traffic accidents worldwide have caused 500,000 deaths and 7 million injuries. Source: Japan's Ministry of Internet and Communications, Economic Cooperation and Development Organization Affordable As the world's per capita income grows, car ownership in developing countries will also increase. These new consumers are more interested in smaller and more affordable models.  
Car sales in 2025 are expected: 35 million in China, 7.4 million in India, and 120 million in the world. Source: Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
Second, seven key trends  
Seven key trends (the upcoming changes will bring seven key changes that will dominate in the next decade):
1. Hybrid/Electric Drive 2, Lighter 3, Automated Driving 4, Supply Chain Transformation 5, New Competitor 6, Internet of Vehicles 7. Turning to Emerging Market Trends 1: Hybrid/Electric Drives Focus on Greenhouse Gases and Pollution The entire industry promotes changes in the way vehicles supply power. Regulations on fuel economy and carbon dioxide emissions are gradually being introduced, forcing automakers to create more efficient power systems. By 2025, 25% of the cars sold in the market will have electric engines, and currently less than 5% of the electric-driven engine cars. But most of the cars' engines will be in mixed mode, and 95% of the car's engine power sources will depend at least in part on fossil fuel supplies. This also means that automakers need to create more efficient internal combustion engines that meet new usage standards.
The development of other automotive power supply methods, such as fuel cells, will increase the overall efficiency of the engine, but only if people can afford it. The Japanese government has pre-set a fuel cell vehicle with a target price of 2.2 million yuan (about 18,000 US dollars). This preset is for fuel cell vehicles before 2025. Although fuel cars in the Japanese market are insignificant for the global automotive consumer market, their expected selling price will be their bargaining chip with hybrid mode power cars.
Trend 2: Lighter In order to improve engine efficiency, automakers have been looking for ways to reduce the total weight of their cars. But under increasingly stringent safety standards, automakers often only choose to use heavier-quality auto parts.
This contradiction began to ease as some companies began researching lightweight and strong materials – including aluminum, high-strength steel and carbon fiber reinforced plastic (CFRP). However, these materials are much more expensive than current automotive materials. In particular, CFRP is currently only used for the production of professional sports cars. Over time, energy demand will increase the adoption of aluminum and high-strength steel.
Trend 3: Unmanned cars have only been able to appear in science fiction, and driverless cars are about to become a reality. Driverless cars can reduce road traffic accidents, ease traffic pressure and provide travel convenience for more people.
The competition in driverless cars is unprecedentedly fierce. These competitions come not only from companies in the industry but also from companies outside the industry. Many fully automated driverless cars are undergoing road testing, and the first commercial semi-automobile will be on the road in the next 1-2 years.
However, the innovation of this technology is also risky. Bringing the control of the car completely to the software system can lead to new hacking vulnerabilities and other hazards – car companies cannot ignore the issue of liability. Allowing the driver to interfere in an emergency is a more likely way in the near future.
First-level driverless: safe driving assistance  
With Adaptive Cruise Control, the driver can rely on a system to achieve full vehicle control.
Second-level driverless: Complex Drive Centering and Automatic Braking, two or more automatic control systems work together. The driver only needs to observe the road ahead and take control when necessary.
Third-level driverless: semi-automatic driving  
The Thermal Imaging Camera, the emergency steering wheel and the Multi-Range Sensors allow the car to be fully automated and also provide the driver with control in an emergency.
4th level of driverless: fully automatic driving millimeter wave radar (Milliwave Radar at the front and rear of the car), Ultrasonic Seneors, destination input settings, variable number of seats, electric drive system and full Auto-steering, without any manual input, the car can perform all safety-critical operations.
Trend 4: Supply chain change The market demand for more energy-efficient cars will lead to a sharp increase in the cost of auto parts – the cost of a car can increase by $2,500. Suppliers of these auto parts need to keep costs down while keeping up with technology trends. Although challenging, it is also an opportunity for parts suppliers.
For large companies, reducing risk means increasing the R&D budget and making multiple attempts at technology. Small companies do not focus on the deep development of their core technologies, but form alliances with other suppliers in areas where they are not specialized.
Trend 5: New competitors are becoming more and more important with technologies such as software, so don't be surprised that consumer technology companies are entering the automotive industry. Although cars may not be the same as smartphones, companies that focus on design, ease of use, auto attendant and battery life may be able to bring new innovations to the field.
One catalyst for technology industry investors to enter the automotive industry is that only one-third of electric vehicles now have the same components as conventional cars, which lowers the entry barrier for the automotive industry.
The car in 2025 will change a lot. Emerging driver groups and new driving styles will create new opportunities for automakers.
Trend 6: The Internet of Things IoT gives us an idea of ​​how the various devices interconnected can change the way we use them. The same is true for interconnected cars.
Connected cars can communicate with each other and with the larger outside world, which can help reduce accidents and ease traffic pressures. They can not only have a huge impact on the automotive industry, but also affect industries such as the insurance industry. For example, insurance companies can monitor driver behavior in new ways, reward good drivers, and distribute costs to drivers who drive poorly. Driving and sharing services companies can also better connect their cars to consumers who need them.
Driving sharing is mixed for the automotive industry. Most of the world's cars are used in daily short-distance traffic, and 95% of the time is idle. If the driver decides to give up ownership and only uses the car when there is demand, the car sales will inevitably be frustrated.
Connected cars – especially autonomous cars – will change the way people drive. In a 2013 survey, more than 75% of respondents said they were more willing to listen to music, make phone calls, watch videos or surf the Internet while riding a car.
Trend 7: Moving to Emerging Markets In most economies, when per capita income increases from US$10,000 to US$20,000, car ownership will increase significantly.
By 2025, many developing countries will reach this level for the first time, creating a huge demand for cars that are smaller, cheaper and less expensive to use. For example, India will become the world's third-largest auto market by 2025 – with 74 million cars. China’s car ownership has exploded and will continue to grow, and car sharing is expected to become more and more popular.
Key points The global automotive industry will soon undergo a huge transformation. Technology is the driving force behind this change, and it is also influenced by population, regulation and the environment. By 2025, the automotive and automotive industries will all be different:
Cars: Cars will be smarter and more efficient, using more efficient engines, lighter materials and automated driving systems.
Automotive: This industry will evolve, with competitors in technology companies, and supply chains will produce high-tech components at lower prices.
Driver: The driver will look at the car with a different look. Car sharing will become more and more popular, and people will see the car as a space for consumer media and phone calls. More and more drivers will come from emerging markets.