4 major trends in the future auto market

In 2016, China will become the world’s second-largest luxury car market. According to the forecast of Aowei, China’s luxury car sales in 2016 will reach 2.273 million, surpassing US sales of 2.182 million units in the same period, making it the second largest in the world for the first time.

It is predicted that by 2020, the average annual growth rate of luxury vehicle sales in China will reach 12.5%, and 2016-2018 will be the peak period of growth, and sales will increase by 500,000 units in two years. It is estimated that by 2020, the sales volume of luxury cars in China will increase from approximately 1.962 million vehicles in 2014 to 3.095 million vehicles, far exceeding the US's 2.312 million vehicles, second only to 3.420 million vehicles in Western Europe.

In addition, Aowei also believes that during the 2014-2020 period, the global luxury car market will grow at an average annual rate of 6.1%, and total sales will increase from 7.09 million units to 9.9 million units.

China's auto production in 2025 will far exceed that of other economies. By 2025, China's auto production will increase from 18.7 million in 2012 to 37.5 million, far more than 30 million in Europe (including Russia) and North America. 17.8 million vehicles. This means that China will maintain its position as the world’s largest automobile producer.

According to analysis, by 2025, Asian countries including China will dominate the global automobile production. India's auto production in 2025 is expected to soar from 3.9 million units in 2012 to 15.5 million units. The total output of Japan and South Korea will increase from 14 million units to 15.7 million units in the same period. In the same period in South America, the vehicle output was only about 7 million vehicles and Africa was less than 1 million vehicles.

The sales of new energy vehicles in Europe will account for one-fifth of the sales volume in 2030. Aowei believes that by 2030, the annual sales of new energy vehicles, including plug-in hybrid vehicles, electric vehicles, etc., will be on the European market. In 2012, 1% soared to 20%.

Ao Wei said that by 2030, the European diesel car market will shrink dramatically, the proportion of diesel vehicles sales will decline sharply from 55% in 2012 to 30%, and the proportion of gasoline vehicles will increase slightly from 44% to 50%. . The main reason for the decline in the market share of diesel vehicles is that the European Union's "Euro 6" standard imposes higher requirements on the emission of automotive dust particles and nitrogen oxides, which brings a greater impact on the light diesel vehicle market.

As sales of diesel vehicles in Europe account for 85% of the global diesel vehicle market, the shrinkage of the European diesel vehicle market also means a significant shrinkage in the size of the global diesel vehicle market.

"Internet car" will profoundly change the industry form Ao Weiwei believes that the future of "Internet cars" that can be loaded with a variety of network applications will profoundly affect the shape of the auto industry. According to the data provided by the company, more than 70% of newly assembled vehicles in Russia, China, Western Europe, North America and other countries and regions have been equipped with Internet interfaces, and a blueprint for the deep integration of automobiles and the Internet is gradually drawn.

According to forecasts, "Internet car" may bring about three major changes: First, with the development of network technology, the future Internet car is likely to become a new mobile Internet platform, people can electronic shopping, download music, access to the car network system Information; Second, the car is more intelligent. It will be able to communicate or perceive between the car and the car, and between the car and the infrastructure. This will help ensure traffic safety and improve the convenience of travel. Third, the data flow brought by the Internet car is large. Data applications provide the basis for the possible development of new business models.

For example, the current automotive parts and components generally use the "cost-plus pricing method", that is, a certain percentage of profits on the cost price is the product sales price, the future through big data technology, people can adopt more scientific pricing methods, auto parts market The price is expected to decrease.