Survey: The Third Wave of Global Electric Vehicles Surges in China

After the “energy” savings of the world's third electric vehicle development after nearly 20 years of accumulation, it has finally erupted rapidly in the past two or three years. The Chinese market, which is seen as the fastest growing electric vehicle, is undoubtedly at the center of this wave. With the strong support of the government and the unique advantages of the parties, China is likely to become a leader.

On August 18, the “Central Enterprise Electric Vehicle Industry Alliance” led by the State Council’s SASAC was established in Beijing. The main task of the alliance is to “integrate the resources of the central enterprise, establish an open technology platform to promote the overall development of the electric vehicle industry, unify industry technical standards, jointly develop new technologies, new products, new solutions, new models of electric vehicles, share technological achievements, and promote The popularization of electric vehicles and the development of the market will improve the overall technical level and global competitiveness of the domestic electric vehicle industry."

However, in our view, this is a way for China to promote the industrialization of electric vehicles. It seeks to find effective and effective solutions to pave the way for successful global electric vehicle development.

In the industry survey conducted by Gasgoo Online (from August 23 to August 27), a total of 1,428 industry insiders participated in the voting as of last Friday (27th). According to the results of poll 1 on “Whether China Will Lead to the Third Wave of Development of Electric Vehicles?”, 37% of people in the industry affirmed that the proportion of negated votes has reached 33%, while another 30% of the industry are holding Attitude, said "difficult to say." At the same time, through telephone interviews with some industry insiders, we conclude that the Chinese industry as a whole is optimistic about the development of the local electric vehicle market.

â–  grasp the third wave

Due to the inability of core technology to break through, the development of industrialization is far from reachable, and the first and second wave of development of electric vehicles worldwide have ended without results. With the energy crisis and environmental pressure becoming increasingly prominent, electric vehicles as the best alternative to traditional fuel vehicles once again attracted the attention of governments around the world as well as major manufacturers.

Tracing the history of electric vehicles, as early as 1834 it began to take shape (the world's first internal combustion engine ignition device was invented by British inventor Henner in 1838). However, it was only an electric tricycle driven by a group of non-rechargeable dry batteries. The mileage was very short. Until 1881, French engineer Gustave Trouve assembled a lead-acid battery-powered electric tricycle (5 years earlier than Carl Bentz invented the fuel car), which led to a revolution in the history of electric vehicles. Ten years later, in 1891, American Morrison successfully developed the first four-wheel electric vehicle, making electric vehicles an important step toward practical application.

The development of the world's first wave of electric vehicles has gradually formed.

According to historical records, at the end of the 19th century, many manufacturers of electric vehicles, including the United Kingdom, France, and the United States, began to emerge and the models they produced varied. Between 1899 and 1906, commercial electric vehicles manufactured by BGS in France covered trucks, buses, cars, and even luxury cars. After entering the carriage-free era, electric vehicles also entered a commercial stage of development. By 1912, the number of electric vehicles registered in the US market had reached 34,000.

However, after the advent of the electronic ignition device in 1911, the internal combustion engine dominated the development of the entire automotive industry. Due to the lower price of fuel vehicles, the low cost of use, and the long-lasting endurance, electric vehicles were almost extinct in the 1930s. The first wave of development of electric vehicles has also died down.

With the accelerating process of industrialization, the consumption of coal in Europe and the United States and other countries has increased year by year. It is estimated that during the early 1940s, sulfur dioxide released by industrial production and domestic combustion worldwide reached several million tons per year, of which more than 60% was generated by coal combustion. Before and after the 1930s, the rise of fuel vehicles with internal combustion engines as the main driving force promoted the rise of petrochemicals, but inevitably aggravated environmental pollution. As a result, people’s environmental awareness began to be awakened and strengthened.

In the 1970s, the outbreak of the oil crisis in the Middle East prompted the United States, led by the United States, to consider reviving electric vehicles to mitigate the pollution caused by vehicle exhaust emissions to the atmosphere. For this reason, GM, Ford and Japan's Toyota and Honda and other manufacturers have made huge investments in seeking to make a difference in electric vehicles, but electric vehicles have not been able to achieve industrialization, and the second wave of electric vehicles is finally at peace.

Due to various factors, the Chinese auto industry started relatively late and therefore missed the first two worldwide developments in the development of electric vehicles. After the reform and opening up, the rapid rise of China's auto industry, and in 2009 it has become the world's largest auto consumption market. The ever-increasing comprehensive national strength and the rapidly growing corporate strength have given China the opportunity to fully invest in the history of the auto industry. The third round of electric vehicle industry competition.

Poll 2 from the survey showed that “government’s strong intervention” was considered by 29% of industry insiders to be the biggest advantage for China’s development of electric vehicles, and given China’s largest global consumer market, “potential consumer market is vast”. The advantage is also recognized by 20% of industry insiders.

In addition, the percentages of "battery raw material resources", "cost advantages", and "advantages of infrastructure construction late" also reached 17%, 17%, and 11%, respectively.

Among them, because China has not participated in the first two wave of electric vehicles, the related supporting facilities are basically new planning and construction, so there is no need to carry out large-scale replacement of the original infrastructure, which saves a huge amount of expenses, and the “advanced advantage” is obvious. . According to an article written by Filipe Barbosa, director of the Johannesburg branch of McKinsey, China's newly-arranged infrastructure may include a service network and promote the implementation of incentives for clean-energy vehicle technologies (such as opening up dedicated lanes and priority parking).

At the same time, after the government gradually implements the relevant electric vehicle policy, it will promote the large-scale construction of supporting facilities including charging stations and charging piles by industry giants including petrochemicals and power grids, and revitalize the Chinese auto industry through electric vehicles. The Chinese government will Resolutely.

â–  The determination of the government

At the inaugural meeting of the “Central Electric Vehicle Industry Alliance” on August 18th, Li Rongrong, former director of the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, declared that it will unswervingly support the central enterprises in accelerating the development of the electric vehicle industry. “The relevant arrangements have been made.” With the determination to develop electric vehicles and the unprecedented efforts of unprecedented policies, the Chinese electric vehicle market is gradually becoming a demonstration base with global influence.

On November 28th, 2009, the Standing Committee of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Premier Wen Jiabao pointed out during the inspection of the Shanghai Silicate Research Institute pilot base of the Chinese Academy of Sciences: “It is necessary to guide consumption policies with low emissions and low energy consumption, especially with low pollution. The development of the automobile has strongly supported the development of electric vehicles.” Similar statements on different occasions have been mentioned by Wen Jiabao several times and the government’s determination to develop electric vehicles is evident.

According to public information, as early as 1992, the Ministry of Science and Technology of China started the research and development of electric vehicles during the Eighth Five-Year Plan period. By 1999, the government officially called for the beginning of research and development of hybrid electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles. In 2001, it was determined that the investment in the electric vehicle industry will be increased during the “10th Five-Year Plan” period, and the “863” electric vehicle major science and technology project will be established, and “three fuel cell vehicles, hybrid electric vehicles, and pure electric vehicles will be established.” "Longitudinal", multi-energy powertrain control system, drive motor and its control system, power storage battery and its management system are "three horizontal" "three vertical and three horizontal" development pattern. Adopting an overall group responsibility system, the entire vehicle company takes the lead, the key parts and components, and the combination of production, study and research, simultaneous research on policies, regulations, and technical standards, and a system for the coordinated development of infrastructure.

Afterwards, the “Eleventh Five-Year” energy-saving and new energy vehicle major projects will be launched, and will “focus on the research and development of hybrid vehicles, alternative fuel vehicles and fuel cell vehicle vehicle design, integration, and manufacturing technologies” and “new energy vehicle experimental testing and basics. "Facility and technology" are among the cutting-edge technologies included in the "National Outline for Medium and Long-Term Scientific and Technological Development Plan (2006-2020)".

At the same time, in terms of macroeconomic policies, policies such as the "Macropolicy of the Automotive Industry," "Catalogue of Industrial Structure Adjustment," and "Notice of the National Development and Reform Commission on Structural Adjustment of the Automobile Industry," and other policies have been involved in the development of new energy vehicles and electric vehicles. Related regulations and measures. The “Adjustment and Revitalization Plan for the Automotive Industry” promulgated in January 2009 emphasizes that “In the next three years, China will have a production capacity of 500,000 new energy vehicles, and sales of new energy vehicles will account for around 5% of the total passenger vehicle sales. Immediately afterwards, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology jointly issued the "Notice on Developing Pilot Projects for Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Demonstration and Promotion" in the same month, and decided to carry out energy conservation and new energy development in 13 cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Chongqing. The pilot demonstration and promotion of automobiles has been carried out. Today, the number of pilot cities has increased to 25, and the development of new energy vehicles will be further implemented.

Until recently, the "Central Enterprise Electric Vehicle Industry Alliance" was established in Beijing. According to the alliance's preparatory plan, by 2012, it is planned to increase investment in new energy vehicles to 100 billion yuan.

According to sources, the "Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan (2011-2020)" has now been completed and has entered the consultation stage for various ministries and commissions. It is understood that the goals set by the "Plan" will reach 2020, China's new energy vehicle industrialization and market scale will reach the top in the world, including new energy vehicles (plug-in hybrid vehicles, pure electric vehicles, hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, etc.) ) The number of vehicles reached 5 million; the sales of energy-saving cars represented by hybrid vehicles reached the top in the world, and the annual sales volume reached 15 million. During the period, the central government will use more than 100 billion yuan of funds to support the development of the energy-saving and new energy automotive industry chain.

It is in the unprecedented policy support of the government that the development of electric vehicles in China has been alive and well and all the people are moving. Of course, the Chinese government is not blindly supporting quick successes and gains, but is based on a number of factors. After certain achievements have been made in the core technology reserve of electric vehicles, the abundant reserves of lithium resources are also favorable guarantees for China to widely promote electric vehicles.

â–  Rich lithium reserves

In the industry generally believe that the Chinese market will sell 30 to 40 million cars in the next year will become the norm, coupled with the government's high subsidy policy, the sales of electric vehicles are not blocked, the potential consumer groups are huge. With the relatively low manufacturing cost and the abundant reserves of raw material resources for batteries, the development path of the Chinese electric vehicle market has been further expanded.

Compared with foreign vehicle manufacturers, the cost advantage of Chinese local OEMs has always been an effective complement to their competitiveness. Whether it is capital costs, labor costs or equipment investment costs, Chinese manufacturers are even better. The low cost will inevitably bring about a certain pull-down effect on the brand image, but more of it has contributed to the possibility that companies in the early stages of development will gradually grow. The global consulting firm McKinsey pointed out that although the RMB has appreciated continuously in the recent past, compared to automakers in mature markets, “Chinese automakers still have a 30% to 40% cost advantage.”

This is an invaluable electric vehicle. Chinese manufacturers have virtually increased their bargaining power.

Most industry insiders interviewed by Gasgoo.com said that the cost of electric vehicles is high. The main reason is that it is still in the stage of research and development and trial operation, and it cannot be compared with the production of fuel vehicles in assembly lines. Once industrialization is realized and the technology gradually matures, the cost of batteries and motors is bound to decline. The senior executives of the Magna electric vehicle department once estimated that when the annual output of electric vehicles reaches 15 to 200,000 vehicles, the cost competitiveness of parts and components can be basically the same as that of existing fuel vehicles.

However, China's relatively abundant reserves of battery raw material resources, in the early development of electric vehicles may be more practical protection to reduce the cost of electric vehicles.

Dame Chatters, manager of Mira Power Systems, said in an interview with Gasgoo.com that China has lithium, cesium and other raw materials that can be used to produce low-carbon cars. “So, China can establish this new market (electric car market) from any direction. Now is the perfect time to start.”

Compared to traditional lead-acid, nickel-cadmium, and nickel-metal hydride batteries, lithium-ion batteries have a much higher energy density, and have many advantages such as no pollution (no secondary pollution), large energy storage, large power, and long life. With the successful development of new materials such as lithium manganate and lithium iron phosphate, the safety of lithium-ion batteries has rapidly increased. The richness of lithium reserves will, to some extent, determine the prospects for the future development of electric vehicles in a country.

According to the statistics of the United States Institute of Regional Regulations in 1997, the world has identified about 2255 million tons of lithium resources, of which 58.7 million tons of energy storage, reserves 15.907 million tons.

Of the 19 large-scale lithium deposits in 7 countries in the world, 4 deposits have a lithium resource of more than 1 million tons. One of them is the Qarhan Salt Lake in Qinghai, China. The other three are Lake Olonni in Bolivia, Atacama Salt Lake in Chile and Hombre Muerto Lake in Argentina. It is understood that there are dozens of industrial grades of lithium in the salt lakes located in several sulfate-type lakes in Qinghai, China and Tibet.

â–  Problems to be solved

In the Chinese market, which is favored by the industry and has a considerable advantage, it is still necessary to solve some key problems in order to successfully lead the third wave of development of electric vehicles.

According to the poll results of Survey 3, “acquisition of advanced power technology” was considered by 33% of the industry to be the first to be resolved, and the number of votes for “participation in leading international standard setting” was 24%, ranking second, and the urgency was also Can not be ignored. Secondly, the “resolve battery recycling, power generation pollution issues” and “cultivating companies with international influence” also accounted for 21% and 16% of the total number of votes, which is also considered by the industry as a major concern and solution. problem.

Electric vehicles are mainly composed of key energy components such as battery energy storage systems and motor drive systems. Among them, battery-related technologies are regarded as the main technical bottlenecks that hinder the development of electric vehicles. At this stage, due to the immature technology of battery energy storage systems, the battery life of electric vehicles is obviously weak. The key to the promotion and application of electric vehicles is that high-performance power source technologies have not been effectively solved, and existing battery products are difficult to meet the requirements for automotive life and power performance.

"Batteries are considered to be the technical bottleneck of electric vehicles, not only in China, but also in the world as a difficult problem." An anonymous person who has long been researching the development of electric vehicles has said, "The world's electric vehicles are currently used. The battery has always been unable to solve the two major shortcomings of low energy and short driving mileage, which means that the low specific energy means low battery power, and the short duration of the driving process means that a single electric run cannot run many kilometers. Electric cars can only stay in the concept car stage."

After more than ten years of independent R&D and demonstration operations, Chinese vehicle manufacturers have achieved certain breakthroughs in some key and key technologies. Therefore, it is not too pessimistic for the long-term breakthrough in the technical problems of electric vehicles. China's current development of electric vehicles The distance between strength and world-class electric vehicle manufacturers is continuously narrowing, even in some areas has been equalized.

The achievements made in the construction of the patent strategy and technical standards platform and the gradually formed product development supporting system and management mechanism have laid a good foundation for the development of electric vehicles in China.

At the same time, relevant government agencies in China are also speeding up the development of national standards for electric vehicles. In charging stations, charging interfaces, etc., General Requirements for Electric Vehicle Charging Stations and Conductive Charging Interface for Electric Vehicles have been reviewed. Other relevant standards are also in the process of formulation and deliberation. In addition, the “Communication Protocol between Battery Management System for Electric Vehicles and Non-vehicle Chargers” and “Test Method for Energy Consumption of Light-duty Hybrid Electric Vehicles” have also been defined as Chinese national standards.

Before the international standards for electric vehicles have been fully developed, China's first national standards will not rule out the possibility of rising to international standards. Once the international system recognizes and adopts China's standard system, the development of China's electric vehicle industry will advance at a faster pace.

Dr. Hahn, the former Chairman of Volkswagen AG, had bluntly declared last month (July) that he had absolutely the power to dominate the development of the electric vehicle industry when attending a forum held in Seoul.

Finally, we believe that in order to cope with the popularization of electric vehicles in the future, the technologies or solutions for solving the problems of battery recycling and the pollution generated during power generation should also be consistent with the pace of research and development of electric vehicles and take precautions.