Research and Analysis of the Prediction of Gross Industrial Output Value in 2012

Judging from China's current demand for economic development, China's machinery industry is expected to continue its steady and relatively rapid development for a long period of time. It is expected that the total output value and sales revenue of China's machinery industry will increase by about 18% over the previous year, and the profit will increase by about 12% over the previous year. The foreign trade volume is expected to increase by about 150% over the previous year.

Since the reform and opening up, especially since the beginning of the new century, China's machinery industry has achieved sustained high-speed growth, but this trend has changed substantially since last year. The main performance is that the growth rate has dropped significantly. According to Cai Weici, vice president of the China Federation of Machinery Industry, despite this, the total output value of the Chinese machinery industry last year was still 25% higher than that of 2010, and the profit increased by 21% over the previous year, but the above growth rate was lower than that of 2010 respectively. More than 8 percentage points and more than 30 percentage points. Since 2011, the growth rate of China's machinery industry has apparently declined. This shows that the period of rapid economic growth in China has gradually passed. In the future, the industry must adapt to the changing trend of market demand from heavy quantity to high quality.

In the Chinese machinery industry, the machine tool industry is in a special position in the “parent machine” industry. The scale of the Chinese machine tool industry has made great progress in the past decade. At present, China is already a world leader in the production and consumption of machine tools. It is worth noting that during the ten years of the "Tenth Five-Year Plan" and the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan", the Chinese machine tool industry achieved a sustained rapid development, and until the first half of 2011, most machine tool companies still produced prosperous sales; but from the second half of last year, At the beginning, the growth of industry demand has obviously slowed down, and the economic benefits have gradually become severe. Last year, the growth rate of the total output value of China's machine tool industry fell from about 39% at the beginning of the year to 33% at the end of the year, and the profit growth rate decreased from about 58% at the beginning of the year to about 30% at the end of the year.

The huge import and export deficit indicates that the demand for high-end machine tool products in China still exists objectively, and will continue to grow rapidly. If the Chinese machine tool industry can convert excess mid-to-low-end capacity into “high-end” capacity to meet demand, especially in terms of function The focus on basic products such as components and numerical control systems will shorten the gap, and the competitiveness of the Chinese machine tool industry will increase significantly. He said that as long as the entire industry accelerates the transformation and upgrading, the prospects will remain bright. It is expected that the production and sales of the Chinese machine tool industry can still achieve a steady growth this year.