Judging from Tesla's Dilemma from the Analysis of China's New Energy Automobile Import and Export in the First Quarter of 18

In the first quarter of 18 years, the overall performance of China's import and export new energy vehicles was very strong. In particular, the total number of exports of new energy vehicles doubled, which was very good. The import of Tesla in the Chinese market did not perform well, and the market for pure electric vehicles was negative.

1. The performance of imported new energy vehicles in January-March 18

From January to March in the year, the new energy vehicle's import and export performance was different. The total number of imported passenger cars reached 6,397 in January-March 2018, an increase of 13% year-on-year, and imports of 530 million U.S. dollars, an increase of 27% from the previous year. The average import of 15,615 vehicles, an increase of 140% over the same period, the average price reached 29,000 US dollars per Taiwan. In March, imports of new energy vehicles reached 2,684 units, an increase of -22% year-on-year.

From the point of view of import structure, from January to March 2018, the number of imported pure electric passenger vehicles reached 4,872 units, which was an increase of -6%, and the number of imported vehicles reached 15,25 units, a year-on-year increase of 197%. The import performance of passenger cars is relatively prominent.

Judging from the retail performance of imported vehicles, plug-in hybrids are mainly mixed with BMW's five series, and Porsche Cayenne's imported plug-in hybrid models perform very well.

Tesla's retail performance is relatively stable. The import of Tesla retail from January to March, with an average of no more than one thousand units, is expected to be strong in Tesla retail in the second quarter.

2. The export of new energy vehicles from January to March in 18 years

Due to the rapid growth of exports of ultra-miniature electric vehicles, from January to March 18, exports of new energy vehicles reached 19,450 units, a year-on-year increase of 650%. Among them, the number of exports in January reached 7560 units, the number of exports in February reached 8414, and the number of exports in March was 3,279 units. In the January-February period, the characteristics of ultra-strong growth were exhibited, of which more than 95% were pure electric micro-cars.

From the perspective of export value, the export value in January-March reached 150 million U.S. dollars and the average unit price was 0.8 million U.S. dollars. In the past 18 years, the average price of passenger cars has fallen, and the growth in the number and the amount of money are still out of sync. ,

This year's export highlights are mainly pure electric passenger car exports, which rose from 33 in January-March 2017 to 129 in January-March this year, a four-fold increase year-on-year. Judging from the export of pure electric buses, it reached an average of $164,000, and the price is still relatively good.

The plug-in hybrid also exported 6 vehicles, and the unit price of exports reached an average of $160,000 per unit, which is very good.

According to internal exchanges, the export of pure electric passenger cars has remained at a generally steady level. The passenger car's exports should also be said to have achieved a very good breakthrough, especially for Taiwan, the United States, and France. The performance is still very good.

3. China's new energy import analysis

The import of new energy vehicles in China is very distinctive. Normal hybrid power is mainly imported from Japan. In 2018, the proportion of imported Japanese imports reached 91%, which is not lower than in 17 years.

Plug-in hybrid imports are mainly European imports, especially Germany and the United Kingdom, which account for a relatively high proportion of imports, reflecting the European car companies to cope with the pressure of fuel consumption is still electrified.

The trend of electrification in the United States is mainly pure electric, that is, Tesla’s performance is critical. The current acceptance of the electric high-end car in the Chinese market is poor. The 18-year U.S. electric car share has dropped from 94% to 89%. The German electric car Imports increased.

Tesla’s first quarter earnings were higher

At present, Tesla's performance in China is very poor, with negative growth in imports, but its future battery investment options are also worthy of attention.

On May 2, local time, Tesla announced its financial report for the first quarter of 2018. The company's revenue increased, but the loss continued to increase, setting a record quarterly loss of 785 million US dollars. On the conference call held that day, Tesla founder and CEO Elon Musk also mentioned that a super battery plant will be built in China and will be included in car production.

If Tesla builds a battery factory, this estimate has a major impact on the pattern of China's battery industry. If one chooses in Jiangsu, Guangdong and Central China, this will have a greater impact on the entire Chinese battery industry chain. Considering that SAIC has already established a plant in Ningde, it can be seen that the battery factory has a profound effect on the pattern of future new energy vehicles. It is estimated that local governments will work hard to promote Tesla's battery project. This also requires the Central Government's overall guidance. Otherwise, it will be chaotic.