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If the development of transnational corporations before and after the accession to the WTO, the reorganization and expansion of the three major corporations, and the struggle of private enterprises to enter the market are compared to the early period of the Warring States period in which the Chinese auto industry developed, then it is now time for the warlords to fight for hegemony and annihilate the weak.
With the increasing competition, what new changes will occur in the domestic auto industry? At the "2003 China Industry Development Forum" concluded recently, this topic has become a hot topic. Zhang Wenkui, deputy director of the Institute of Enterprise Economics of the State Council Development Research Center, believes that “may face reshufflingâ€; Du Fangci, deputy secretary-general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, summarizes the “structural adjustment of growth and withdrawalâ€; chief analysis of China Automotive Industry Consulting Co. Jia Xinguang referred to this change as "the projection of transnational strategic adjustment to China."
Private enterprises will rise further
Zhang Wenkui believes that the development of the Chinese auto industry will experience four major changes: the domestic auto industry will enter a stable high growth period and will maintain a 20% to 30% growth rate for a longer period of time; it will attract more capital to enter and enter. Impulse is difficult to limit; after the transition period of WTO is over, an all-round opening pattern will emerge; competition will inevitably undergo major changes, new entrants will increase, concentration will fluctuate, price competition will become more frequent, state-owned enterprises will face new challenges, and the entire industry will face new challenges. Shuffle.
Zhang Wenkui emphasized the importance of the entry of private enterprises, and the impact of their development on the future of the automobile industry. He said that some of the current practices of private enterprises may be "non-standard" or even "wild", but they should not be excluded or restricted. While regulating the behavior of competition, we must treat each other equally and further reduce the threshold of entry.
Zhang Wenkui said that the involvement of private enterprises not only enables the entire automotive industry to have more abundant development funds, richer supplies, and faster growth, but also can promote competition, encourage entrants to reduce costs, increase cost-effectiveness, promote industry restructuring, and promote “national The creation and development of "brand".
Concerning the vacillation of policies, and the argument that private companies are involved in causing excessive competition, waste of resources, and decentralized concentration, Zhang Wenkui believes that the Chinese auto industry is not overly competitive but lacks competition. In particular, the oligopolistic competition pattern of high-end products has not changed. The focus should not be on restricting access but it should be a sound exit mechanism. The entry of private enterprises will certainly promote competition.
Regarding the waste of resources, Zhang Wenkui emphasized that whether it was caused by excess capacity or due to repeated construction itself. What should be limited is local blind investment of low-end products rather than private capital. As for the degree of market concentration, we must see that China’s auto market is still an emerging market. It cannot fully meet the requirements of mature markets in Europe and the United States. Large-scale and high concentration is the development direction, but it should not be killed in the development process. .
Zhang Wenkui said that the "Automobile Industry Policy" will be introduced soon. If private enterprises' access is more restricted, it will have a negative impact on the development of the Chinese industry.
Investment will heat up, exit mechanism to be improved
Du Fangci believes that the development of the domestic automotive industry has produced two major changes: the status of the pillar industries in the domestic automotive industry is increasingly clear; the automobile industry has begun to shift from "explosive" growth to a "high-speed and stable" stage.
He said that due to the fact that the domestic auto industry has relatively high profits, the investment boom may continue to heat up. The investment boom has impulses from local governments and impulses from individuals.
Du Fangci said that recently people often say that they want to do the auto industry. Some say that there are more than 200 million yuan, and the most are even more than 200 billion yuan. The impulse to invest from local governments is also great. There is a local chief accountant for the Finance Bureau, even directly to the automobile company as a deputy to the board of directors. However, if investors do not have the background of the auto industry, the investment risk is undoubtedly great. In this regard, Du Fangci believes that the primary responsibility of the government is to make information transparent and transparent, allowing investors to make judgments based on information.
On the other hand, it is necessary to improve the exit mechanism.
Du Fangci said that now more than 100 automobile plants have been set in the previous planned economy, and they have not changed until now. Some companies have even lost their factories, and they have a high number of people. However, they are still an automobile factory. Entry and exit mechanisms The imperfections, as well as the government's multi-headed management, have become the main reason constraining the healthy development of the auto industry.
The global strategy of multinational corporations began to adjust
Jia Xinguang analyzed the future trends of the domestic auto industry from the perspective of strategic adjustment of multinational corporations. He believes that the four major changes are worth paying attention: First, the development of the domestic automotive industry has largely become part of the global strategy of multinational companies, which means that the cooperation and integration between domestic auto companies and multinational companies will be further upgraded. Second, multinational companies will increase their investment in China. Jia Xinguang, for example, said that in the next five years, public investment in China will reach 1.6 billion euros, accounting for 87% of its total investment in the Asia-Pacific region. Third, multinational corporations are fully involved in the Chinese market and the competition will further intensify. In addition to automobile production, competition will also be carried out in all aspects of automobile sales, automobile credit, maintenance and maintenance, convention and exhibition industry, and consulting industry. Fourth, multinational companies are stepping up their integration of China's resources. Jia Xinguang pointed out that with the gradual relaxation of restrictive measures, multinational corporations will reorganize their organizational forms and management models. They will weaken China’s management through capital increases, mergers, purchases of Chinese stock rights, etc.; they will adjust their corporate functions and trading models, and implement professional programs. Intensive and large-scale centralized management and management to reduce costs; to establish a management, technology and service center model, and investment strategy from the "China business strategy" to "China market strategy"; will further integrate its supply chain and sales system To integrate the supply procurement and sales networks of several companies that are also joint ventures in China.