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Petroleum: The gap between supply and demand continued to expand During the '10th Five-Year Plan' period, with the rapid development of China's economy, oil consumption has increased significantly, the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified, and the degree of foreign dependence has increased year by year. After China became a net oil importer in 1993, the net oil import volume increased by more than 10 times in more than 10 years, and its foreign dependence has exceeded 40%. By 2004, China’s crude oil production reached 175 million tons, imports 120 million tons, consumption reached more than 290 million tons, and foreign dependence exceeded 40%, becoming the second largest oil consumer after the United States and The fifth largest oil producer in the world.
According to statistics, from January to October 2005, China’s crude oil production reached a cumulative total of 151.074 million tons, an increase of 4.3% year-on-year; imported crude oil was 105.484 million tons, an increase of 5.9% year-on-year, compared to the same period in 200434 The .3% increase decreased by 28.4 percentage points. Some experts believe that due to high oil prices, oil companies have adopted energy-saving and resource-utilization measures, investment in high-energy-consuming industries has significantly declined, power supply and demand contradictions have been eased, and fuels such as fuel ethanol and methanol fuel have rapidly developed as alternative fuels for automobiles. The year-on-year high base and many other factors affected the growth of crude oil imports. This is mainly due to the lack of supply, not the potential decline in demand.
According to the analysis of the Development Research Center of the State Council, in 2006, China’s oil demand was about 328 million tons, which was an increase of about 6% from 2005. In recent years, due to resource constraints, China's crude oil production has been growing steadily at an average annual rate of less than 2%. In 2005, production is expected to reach 181 million tons, a growth rate of 3.3%. In 2006, China’s crude oil production growth rate was 1.6%, and it will decline somewhat. It is estimated that the annual crude oil production will reach 184 million tons, and the demand will reach 328 million tons, still need about 144 million tons. The import of resources will make China's crude oil import dependence in 2006 continue to expand, reaching about 44%.
In the past 10 years, China’s oil consumption has increased by an average of 5.7% annually, while the average annual increase in crude oil supply is only 1.6%. According to an assessment, China’s oil resources rank 11th in the world, and the per capita resources are much lower than the world average. Although proven reserves are still at the peak of growth, new reserves found are relatively low, resources are of low quality, and mining is difficult. There is a shortage of reserve resources. In addition, although oil production has been growing, there is a certain structural contradiction. The eastern Daqing, Shengli and Liaohe oilfields have been mined for many years, and production is becoming more and more difficult. While exploration of new oil fields in the west is difficult and far from the consumer market, oilfield development is constrained by input conditions and transportation costs, failing to form a true strategic area.
It is predicted that during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s oil consumption will increase by an average annual rate of 5.5%, oil consumption in 2010 will reach 350 million tons, crude oil production will be around 190 million tons, and crude oil supply will depend on foreign It is 45.7%. It can be said that the rapid economic development and the maintenance of the oil resources needed to maintain this development have made our country’s serious trust in international oil a basic fact and trend. Oil companies have to embark on the global oil search road. It is expected that major oil companies in 2006 will vigorously strive for oil and gas resources in Russia and Central Asia and expand oil and gas supply channels in Africa and Southeast Asia to ensure China’s crude oil import supply. According to the latest statistics released by the Ministry of Commerce, Chinese oil companies with CNPC, Sinopec, and CNOOC as their core members have participated in the exploration and development of 65 oil and gas projects in more than 30 countries around the world, with a total investment of US$7 billion. A total of 60 million tons of oil was obtained.
During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, China’s oil supply and demand gap will continue to expand, and economic development will continue to increase its dependence on the international oil market. In order to ensure China’s oil supply, it should go out to share the world’s resources, participate in foreign oil and gas field development, and acquire offshore oil and gas field assets. , importing foreign oil and gas resources, but also improve the efficiency of resource use.
Natural Gas: Increased Production and Increased Imports In 2004, China’s natural gas production was 40.77 billion cubic meters, and its consumption amounted to 41.5 billion cubic meters, accounting for 2.8% of disposable energy, far below 23.8%. The world average. From January to October 2005, natural gas production was 39.81 billion cubic meters, a year-on-year increase of 19.3%. According to the Energy Development Institute of the State Development Planning Commission, the demand for natural gas in China in 2005 was approximately 48 billion cubic meters. China's natural gas consumption is dominated by the origin of production, mainly in the southwest, northeast and northwest regions, namely Sichuan, Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Xinjiang, accounting for more than 80% of the country's consumption.
According to relevant persons from the National Development and Reform Commission, the proportion of natural gas planning demand for energy demand during China's “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period will double from 2005 to 6% to 8%, and by 2010, natural gas demand will reach 100 billion cubic meters.
China's coastal economically developed regions are the main force for natural gas demand. From the point of view of the industry structure of demand, the petrochemical industry has the largest degree of correlation and is the direct downstream industry of the natural gas industry. In 2004, the investment hotspots in the China petrochemical industry were mainly concentrated on crude oil, natural gas processing, organic chemical raw materials, and synthetic material production. From the perspective of natural gas development master plan, based on the existing more than 60 already-connected natural gas cities, it will develop to 140 cities in 2005 and develop to 270 cities in 2010. In the middle of the 21st century, 65% of cities in China will Pass natural gas.
At present, China's coal-fired power generation accounts for about 80% of the total power generation. Coal-fired power consumption is high and environmental pollution is serious. Therefore, from a long-term perspective, the importance of the oil and gas industry, especially natural gas, to electricity will inevitably become increasingly evident. At the beginning of the new century, CNOOC has accelerated the pace of development in the midstream and downstream, relying on abundant offshore natural gas resources and imported liquefied natural gas resources to vigorously develop natural gas power generation.
PetroChina, CNOOC and Sinopec are China's three largest natural gas producers. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the increase in the supply of natural gas was still from the West-East Gas Pipeline and the imported liquefied natural gas from Guangdong and Fujian. PetroChina's West-East Gas Transmission Project has a designed annual gas transmission capacity of 12 billion cubic meters. Currently, it has begun to supply gas and the downstream demand has steadily increased. The CNOOC's imported LNG projects in Guangdong and Fujian will be put into operation in 2006 and 2007 respectively, and the annual gas supply volume will reach 7 billion to 8 billion cubic meters. At present, there are more than a dozen liquefied natural gas projects to be built and under construction in China, of which the most is CNOOC, but only Guangdong and Fujian have implemented resources. PetroChina and Sinopec have not made breakthroughs.
At present, China has basically formed a gas-bed methane resource area consisting mainly of six large basins in Sichuan, Ordos, Tarim, Qaidam, Qiongqiong, and East China Sea and the coexistence of gas and dissolved gas in the three major basins of Bohai Bay, Songliao, and Junggar. Resource area pattern.
However, in the next 5 to 10 years, the growth rate of natural gas consumption is very fast. With the construction of the West-East Gas Pipeline and other projects, China's demand for natural gas will increase at a rate of about 15% per year. Although China's natural gas industry will develop rapidly in the next 20 years and its output will increase rapidly, due to the strong demand growth, the volume of imported natural gas will increase rapidly, and the foreign dependence will be close to 50%.
The international supply of natural gas is relatively sufficient. The neighboring countries of China, Russia, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan are rich in natural gas resources. These countries still have 40 to 60 billion cubic meters of natural gas per year to find new markets. All these will provide favorable conditions for the utilization and development of natural gas in China.
Coal: the diversified industrial structure will form In recent years, China's coal industry has achieved greater development. 177 high-yield and high-efficiency mines have been built. In 2004, China's coal production reached 1.956 billion tons, and it is expected to exceed 2 billion tons in 2005 and 2000. Compared to 999 million tons in the year, it has more than doubled in five years. The concentration of coal production has also gradually increased. By June 2005, the number of coal mines in China has decreased from more than 80,000 in 1998 to about 25,000. Among the existing coal production enterprises, there were 31 enterprises with a coal output exceeding 10 million tons in 2004, and the Shenhua Group's annual output of coal, which ranked first, exceeded 120 million tons.
China's electricity is dominated by coal-fired power generation. In 2004 and 2005, the installed capacity of power generation capacity was 70 million kilowatts, and this alone required an increase of more than 100 million tons of coal supply per year.
It is estimated that in 2006, China's coal output will reach about 2.2 billion tons. With the further implementation of macro-control policies, the production growth rate of power, metallurgy, building materials, and chemical industries will gradually slow down, and the demand for coal will remain at a relatively reasonable level. The total coal demand in 2006 is expected to be approximately 2.2 billion. Ton, to achieve the overall balance of supply and demand, but does not rule out the phenomenon of partial supply tight.
The first vice president of the China Coal Industry Association and the chairman of the China Coal Society Si Hongji pointed out that due to the relative lack of oil and gas resources in China, the gap between oil supply and demand has increased year by year. Therefore, the coal conversion and petroleum substitution project has been vigorously developed to reduce the dependence on foreign oil imports. Significance. The replacement of petroleum with coal liquefaction will become an important development path for the clean utilization of coal in China in the future.
In the coming years, the demand for thermal coal will continue to grow rapidly. In addition, due to tighter supply in the international oil market, rising prices, and suppressed domestic oil consumption, some production units began to consider more alternatives to petroleum, and the consumption of coal liquefaction products increased. With the gradual deepening of industrial restructuring, the development of recycling economy and the construction of a conservation-minded society, the increase in coal demand will drop significantly. According to sources from the National Development and Reform Commission's Energy Bureau, coal demand during the 11th Five-Year Plan period will continue to grow, but the growth rate is significantly lower than during the '15' period. In 2010, the coal supply capacity will reach 2.4 billion tons, and the consumption will reach 2.2 billion tons. the above. During the “11th Five-Year Plan†period, the increase in China’s coal consumption was mainly due to coal for power generation and heating, and the amount of coal used in the iron and steel, coal chemical and building materials industries also increased.
Experts pointed out that the 'Eleventh Five-Year' or even a longer period in the future, the development of China's coal industry will be based on coal, the formation of coal, electricity, metallurgy, building materials, chemical and other diversified industrial structure, adjust and optimize the coal industry structure, to achieve ' The two transformations 'extended 'two industrial chains' to increase the added value of coal products. The 'two transformations' are: the shift from quantitative to qualitative and profitable, from production and sales of primary products to comprehensive development and utilization. 'Two industrial chains' are: coal, electricity, high-energy products industrial chain, coal, coke, chemical products industrial chain, in particular, to stretch the second industrial chain, using methanol as raw material to develop coal chemical industry.
In addition, China's CBM reserves are estimated at 35 trillion cubic meters, roughly equal to natural gas reserves. CBM is a precious resource that accelerates the research and development of coalbed methane comprehensive development and utilization technologies, making CBM widely used in power generation, coal chemical industry, civil use and other fields.
Transportation: Increase in the total mileage of total mileage The transportation industry, as a basic and service industry in the national economy, is a natural ally in the petrochemical industry. Chemical raw materials and products are mainly added through water and land circulation to realize added value. In recent years, the petrochemical industry as a national basic industry has developed rapidly. The rise of chemical parks around the country, the scale of production and operations, and the large increase in the import and export of chemical products have brought about further demand for transportation. Transportation has become one of the key conditions for the development of the chemical industry.
The period of the tenth Five-Year Plan period was the fastest growing period in China's transportation infrastructure construction. The continuous implementation of the fiscal policy for many years led to the investment of a large amount of government bond funds in the construction of transportation infrastructure such as roads, railways, and civil aviation. By the end of 2005, the total mileage of the country’s roads will reach 1.9 million kilometers, of which the expressway will be nearly 40,000 kilometers; the national railway mileage will be 74,000 kilometers.
It is predicted that by 2010, the total length of the national highway network will reach 2.3 million kilometers, of which the highway mileage will reach 55,000 kilometers; the new railway line will be built over 10,000 kilometers, and the national railway mileage will reach 8.5 In 10,000 kilometers, railway coal transport capacity reached 1.5 billion tons; the number of deep-water berths in coastal ports increased by about 350, new handling capacity reached 1.9 billion tons, and the total throughput capacity reached 4.4 billion tons; and the mileage of third-level inland waterways reached more than 10,000 kilometers. The five-level navigation channel reached more than 30,000 kilometers.
At present, China has entered the middle stage of industrialization, and the pace of industrialization in China during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period will further accelerate. According to the experience of industrialization in Western countries, the characteristics of development at this stage are dominated by heavy chemical industry. The demand for energy and raw materials such as coal, electricity, metallurgy, and chemical industry, which are the basis for the development of heavy chemical industry, is very strong. This has driven the rapid growth in the demand for transportation of energy and raw materials such as coal, petroleum, and iron ore.
The national conditions of our country and the characteristics of the railway itself have determined that the railway is in the backbone of the comprehensive transportation system. In 2004, the total turnover of China's railway cargo accounted for 52% of the national freight turnover (excluding oceans). Railway transport cargoes mainly focus on basic strategic materials such as coal, petroleum, and iron and steel, and coal traffic alone accounts for more than 40% of the total freight volume. It is the absolute main force of China's basic strategic materials.
Due to the unbalanced regional economic development in China, the regional industrial layout is also different. To meet the demand for basic energy and raw material transportation in the process of rapid industrialization, it is also necessary to reduce the environmental pollution generated during the transportation of coal and other raw materials and reduce the external Cost, comprehensive transportation system should carry out reasonable space layout and system planning. Experts believe that the development of transportation during the “11th Five-Year Plan†period should be based on existing foundations. It should gradually shift the development ideas from passive adaptation to the modernization of transportation and give full play to the leading role of transportation in promoting the national economy, focusing on resolving the coordinated development of transportation. The key issues such as overall efficiency improvement will promote the overall development level to a new level.
Electric power: installed capacity will reach 900 million kilowatts After nearly 20 years of rapid development, China's power industry has achieved remarkable results. Its installed capacity and power generation have been ranked second in the world since 1996. By the end of 2004, China’s installed power capacity reached 440 million kilowatts, and its power generation reached 2.20 trillion kwh, which was the highest in history. However, due to the development of China's energy-consuming industries, this year is the most severe year for China's power supply and demand situation since the 1990s. A total of 24 provinces and municipalities have cut their power, and the nation’s largest power shortage has reached more than 40 million kilowatts. The electricity gap is more than 650 billion kilowatt-hours, and more and more companies are shrouded in the shadow of power shortage panic.
In 2005, the production capacity of the power industry continued to grow at a rapid rate. By the end of September, the installed capacity of power generation in the country had reached 480 million kilowatts. From January to September 2005, the country’s newly installed power generation capacity was 3,979,400 kilowatts, generating 1,777,938 million kilowatt-hours, an increase of 13.4% over the same period in 2004. The total installed capacity of new power generation in 2005 will reach 70 million kilowatts, and the total installed capacity is expected to reach 500 million kilowatts by the end of 2005. In 2005, the demand for electricity in China still maintained a rapid growth, and the national electricity consumption will reach 22380 to 2300 billion kwh. It is expected that the contradiction between supply and demand of electricity will be eased in 2005 and the power gap will reach 20 million kilowatts. From January to September 2005, the entire society used 183.879 billion kWh of electricity, an increase of 13.95% over the same period in 2004.
The National Development and Reform Commission predicts that the country’s electricity demand growth will slow down in 2006. At the same time, according to the reasonable construction period of the power station, it is estimated that more than 72 million kilowatts will be put into operation in 2006, generating nearly 2.7 trillion kwh of electricity, an increase of 9.6%. Looking forward to further ease, the power gap is between 8 million and 10 million kilowatts. However, there will still be imbalances in the supply and demand of electricity between periods and regions.
Some experts predict that the power shortage in 2007 is expected to be completely eased. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, under the guidance of the country’s “West-to-East Electricity Transmission, North-South Mutual Supply, and National Networking†policy, China’s total installed capacity will reach 900 million in 2010 based on the adjustment and improvement of existing power generation and power supply facilities. Kilowatts, generating capacity will reach 3,100 billion to 3,200 billion kwh. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, the power industry will adhere to multiple developments, improve energy efficiency, improve the layout of power points, orderly develop hydropower based on the protection of the ecological environment, actively develop nuclear power, steadily develop natural gas power generation, and accelerate wind power generation.
In the future development of the power industry, it is necessary to adopt the principles of resource conservation and environmental friendliness, and to conserve land, save water, and save coal in power construction and production, and strengthen planning to prevent blindly redundant construction and waste of resources. At the same time, we will strengthen the prevention and control of pollution at the source and protect the ecological environment, change the status of pollution after pollution control, and control pollution at the edge, accelerate sulfur dioxide treatment in coal-fired power plants, attach importance to control of sulfur dioxide emissions, reduce total pollutant emissions, and build a new power industry. Development model.
Links: "The CPC Central Committee's Proposal for Formulating the Eleventh Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" Abstract Oil and natural gas are used together to enhance oil and gas exploration and development in the country, expand overseas cooperation and development, enhance the strategic reserve capacity of petroleum, and develop steadily. Oil substitute products.
Coal will build large-scale coal bases, adjust and reform small and medium-sized coal mines, develop and utilize coalbed methane, and encourage coal and electricity joint ventures.
Focusing on large-scale and high-efficiency units, the power industry will optimize the development of coal-fired power, orderly develop hydropower on the basis of ecological protection, actively develop nuclear power, strengthen the construction of power grids, and expand the scale of West-to-East power transmission.
Transportation should be rationally laid out, and various modes of transport should be linked to each other to make use of the combination of efficiency and overall advantages to form a comprehensive, convenient, smooth, efficient and safe transportation system. Speed ​​up the development of railways and urban rail transit, further improve the road network, and develop aviation, water transportation and pipeline transportation.
Mineral development should strengthen the geological exploration of important mineral resources, increase the resources of geological reserves, standardize the development order, implement rational mining and comprehensive utilization, improve the system of paid use of resources, and promote international cooperation in resource development and utilization technologies.
The raw material industry should make efforts to adjust the product structure, corporate organizational structure and industrial layout according to energy and resource conditions and environmental capacity, and improve product quality and technological content. We will strengthen overall planning, scientific argumentation, and information guidance for the construction of major basic infrastructure industries, and prevent blindly redundant construction and waste of resources.
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Over the years, as China’s economy continues to develop at a rapid rate, bottlenecks in resources and energy have become more apparent. Oil, natural gas and coal are all one-time resources. For the chemical industry, not only as an energy source but also as a raw material, the supply situation and changes in the market are more concerned by the chemical industry. At the same time, the demand for electricity and transportation in the chemical industry, which consumes more energy and transports more and more, is also increasing.