Trend Analysis of Machine Tool Market in Various Industries in 2011

Li Jingming, deputy secretary-general of the China Machine Tool & Tooling Industry Association, said recently that the downstream industries of China's machine tool industry, such as aviation, aerospace, shipbuilding, power, energy, automobiles, rail transit, high-speed railways, and defense industry, will be in the "12th Five-Year Plan" period. Even for a longer period of time, large-scale and deep-level structural adjustments will be carried out, which will bring tremendous opportunities to the machine tool industry.

Automotive Industry The automotive (including parts and components) industry has been the largest user of the machine tool industry. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the average annual growth rate of automobile production and sales exceeded 20%. In 2010, the number of cars produced and sold reached 18,264,700 and 18,061,900, respectively, an increase of 32.44% and 32.37% respectively from the previous year. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, due to factors such as energy, environment and transportation, and the impact of high base deceleration, the growth rate of automobile production and sales will slow down compared with the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period. However, judging from China’s per capita car ownership (the number of car ownership in China in 2010 was 48, the world’s average is 140) and per capita GDP growth, China’s auto market, especially the second-tier, third-tier and rural markets There is more room for development.

It is reported that in the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" of the automobile industry, the annual automobile production in 2015 is planned to be 25 million, Dong Yang, the head of the Automotive Industry Association, is forecast to be 30 million, and the total capacity planning of major automobile companies in 2015 will exceed 30 million. This undoubtedly provides a large market for machine tools. Therefore, 2011 was the initial phase of delisting to stimulate auto consumption policies (the preferential tax for purchase of small-displacement passenger cars was canceled at the beginning of the year), and the increase in the number of minibuses in certain large cities will inevitably have an impact on the people’s psychology of car purchase. Therefore, it is estimated that the automobile market will cool down this year, but it is still possible that production and sales will maintain a growth rate of no less than 10%.

The machine tools required by the automobile industry should be first of all efficient and reliable, but also have sufficient accuracy and accuracy stability, but also have moderate flexibility, so not only a large number of general-purpose CNC machine tools, but also a lot of CNC and Non-numerical special machine tools (such as combination machine tools, etc.).

The construction and transformation of China’s railways, which focus on high-speed, speed-increasing and heavy-loading, has entered the "fast track" of development. In the five years starting from 2010, a large-scale investment of about 700 billion yuan will be maintained each year, which will bring tremendous business opportunities to the machine tool industry. At the same time, by 2015, China will build 79 urban rail transit lines in 22 cities, with a total investment of 882 billion yuan, which also provides a market for machine tool products.

The demand for machine tools in the rail transit industry is manifold. One is the manufacture of locomotives (electric locomotives and electric locomotives) and vehicles. The second is the daily maintenance of wheel and axle manufacturing machines, as well as track processing and high-speed railway sleeper processing. The above-mentioned manufacturing processes are in urgent need of general-purpose CNC cutting machines, such as machining centers and CNC vertical lathes. Also need special CNC gold cutting machine, such as track plate grinder, axle grinder and so on. It also needs presses, bending machines and other forming machines. Obviously, the rail transit industry has become a very important emerging customer base in the Chinese machine tool market.

Shipbuilding Industry The Chinese shipbuilding industry in 2010 has a relatively good production situation (from January to November, the country's shipbuilding capacity was 56.86 million dwt, an increase of 55.4% year-on-year; the new ship order volume was 67.98 million dwt, which was 2.8 times the same period last year), and At present, the number of handheld ship orders in China is still sufficient (19.936 million deadweight tons as of the end of November last year), so the production of the Chinese shipbuilding industry in 2011 will still be relatively good. However, the recovery base of the international shipbuilding market is weak, and the downward trend of ship prices is obvious. In addition, the structural imbalance of China's shipbuilding capacity (overcapacity of low-end ordinary ship type and high-end production capacity is insufficient), under the background of increasing pressure for RMB appreciation, the Chinese ship in 2011 The business risks facing the industry can not be ignored.

As an important client of the machine tool, the ship supporting equipment (medium and low speed diesel engine, crankshaft, propeller, deck machinery, etc.) industry has made great progress during the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" period, and many projects have been newly built and expanded. However, the funds for these projects have basically been put in place, and orders for key processing equipment for heavy-duty (including super heavy-duty) machine tools have been basically completed. Obviously, in 2011, orders for heavy-duty machine tools will be significantly reduced in the ship equipment industry, and there will be new demand for other types of machine tools.

New energy sources for wind power and nuclear power equipment manufacturing have become the top priority for China’s energy strategy. This article focuses on the discussion of wind power and nuclear power equipment with close relationship between machining and machine tools.

Wind power has developed rapidly. In the six years from 2004 to 2009, the annual growth rate of installed capacity of wind power has exceeded 100%. It is estimated that the installed capacity at the end of 2010 will reach 35 million kilowatts, and it will reach 100 million kilowatts by 2020. Now China's MW-class wind turbines have been mass-produced, with the largest being 3MW.

However, China's wind power equipment manufacturing industry is still in its infancy. Except for a few strong companies, most companies only use the technology transfer method to carry out complete machine assembly. On the one hand, there has been an excess of low-end production capacity, and the entire industry urgently needs to improve its technical capabilities and equipment levels. Naturally, it needs to purchase advanced machine tool equipment, especially large-scale CNC general-purpose and special-purpose machine tools.

Nuclear power is the clean energy that countries compete for. In 2010, China’s nuclear power installed capacity was 10.8 million kilowatts, and 23 nuclear power units were under construction, accounting for 40% of the world’s generating units. China originally planned to have 40 million kilowatts of nuclear power installed capacity in 2020, but in order to reduce carbon dioxide emissions and take into account the real possibility, the medium- and long-term plan for nuclear power to be issued is expected to adjust this target to more than 70 million kilowatts. The "12th Five-Year Plan" period will be the peak period of China's nuclear power construction. The annual investment in nuclear power construction will exceed 70 billion yuan, and nuclear power equipment accounts for 5% to 6% of the total investment in nuclear power projects. Therefore, nuclear power equipment manufacturers will also need high-end CNC machine tools.

Aviation Manufacturing China's aviation industry is on the rise. Apart from the military aircraft series that has made significant progress, the impressive C919 large passenger aircraft has signed 100 start-up orders and achieved its first flight in 2014. At the test flight certification stage ARJ21 new regional passenger aircraft, the cumulative number of orders obtained reached 340, and other such as helicopters, general aircraft development capabilities have also been significantly enhanced.

In the aerospace industry, China is accelerating the upgrading of satellite technology and product replacement as well as the development of large-thrust rockets. The manned spaceflight, lunar exploration and Beidou navigation systems have achieved major phase results.

In 2011, the aerospace industry will also have new demands for CNC machine tools, especially high-speed, high-efficiency, high-precision, multi-axis linkage high-end CNC machine tools, which may include automated tape laying machines and automatic wire laying machines for the manufacture of composite components. .

Machinery Industry The machinery industry mentioned here refers to the 12 major industries (in which the automotive industry has been studied separately) that currently belong to the China National Aircraft Industry Co., Ltd. They are the basic user industries of machine tools.

In 2010, the production and operation environment of China's machinery industry was sound. The annual sales value exceeded 13 trillion yuan, an increase of more than 30% over the previous year. The increase in imports and exports was also 30%, and the increase in profits may exceed 45%. In 2011, the production and sales of the machinery industry will maintain a good momentum of growth. Although the growth rate will decline, it is expected to exceed 15%. The increase in investment in fixed assets will also be higher than the national level, and a significant portion of these investments will be the purchase of production equipment such as machine tools.

In general, large and medium-sized enterprises and some foreign-invested enterprises will focus on purchasing high- and mid-range CNC machine tools, while small and medium-sized enterprises, especially private SMEs, will mostly purchase medium- and low-end CNC machine tools, as well as ordinary and non-CNC-specific and specialized machine tools. Not a small demand. In the future, medium- and low-end machine tools will also account for a significant proportion.