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Trend 1: Investment repositioning. With the rise in the price of natural gas, the U.S. general petrochemical field is no longer attractive. Investment gradually shifts to the Middle East and Asia, which have cheap raw materials and growth potential. In 2010, Iran's, Saudi Arabia's and China's planned production capacity of ethylene will account for 70% of the world's increase; by 2020, the proportion of ethylene production capacity in the Middle East and Asia will increase to 70% of the world's total.
Trend 2: Respond to changes in international trade. With the shift in investment direction, it will be difficult for the United States to become the master of manufacturing, and Asia's cheap labor and exchange rate flexibility will enable rapid changes in international trade. After more than 70 years of net exports, U.S. chemical industry shifted from 2002 to net imports. Although China's exchange rate may become more volatile in 2020, the United States will still be the major chemical importer.
Trend 3: Strengthen business restructuring. According to statistics from the American Chemical Market Association, in 2005, the world’s top 20 general chemical manufacturers accounted for 46% of global production capacity, compared with only 37% in 1990. As the chemical industry continues to mature, it is expected that some of the new leaders such as Saudi Sabic, Sinopec and Indochinese India will continue to play a greater role by strengthening business restructuring.
Trend 4: Pay attention to coal utilization. Given the rising cost of oil and natural gas, countries are working to develop other resources and the prospects for coal as a substitute are promising. The United States has reserves of about 268 billion tons of coal, which can be described as Saudi Arabia in the coal industry. If crude oil prices remain high next year, it will undoubtedly promote the production of coal-based chemicals.
Trend 5: Accelerate the development of biotechnology. With the continuous advancement of science and technology, cereals and other biomass are expected to reduce the dependence of countries on crude oil. In addition, Monsanto, DuPont, etc. are developing biotechnologies for waste control, insecticidal, drought-resistant, cold-resistant and nitrogen use, and it is expected to reduce the demand for pesticides, fertilizers, and irrigation water by 2020.
Trend 6: Study cycle period. The cyclical cycle of industrial chemicals for general chemicals is as long as 7-10 years, and it is now approaching the peak of this round. It may reach a low point around 2010 and then it will start a new cycle in 2020. All these will have an important impact on the development of chemical companies and even the chemical industry. It is worth studying and using them.
In addition, continuous innovation will enable the chemical industry to invest billions of dollars annually in R&D to create new solutions, develop new technologies and develop new products. In view of the continuing high international oil prices, it is increasingly important to increase energy efficiency. Overall, the establishment of a comprehensive energy program is the trend of development. This includes the large use of natural gas and renewable energy and raw materials.
For the characteristics that future leading chemical companies should possess, participants believe that they can be summarized in several ways: using IT technology to create outstanding global supply chain management capabilities; able to adapt to changes in the international market, not only can produce general-purpose products, but also can produce special Products; can provide tailored services to meet the increasingly refined needs of customers around the world; can constantly develop chemicals with new functional characteristics and excellent production processes based on changes in market demand, such as the production of specialty products based on biotechnology And general chemicals and so on.
In the increasingly competitive market environment, what kind of development trend will the chemical industry present? What qualities should a chemical company have to lead? At the forum recently organized by the Chemical Week of the United States, the presidents and CEOs of world-renowned chemical companies think that the chemical industry will present six major trends: investment repositioning and response to changes in international trade; the world’s leading chemical companies in the world Supply chain management, adapting to changes in the market, and continuously developing new products should have obvious advantages.