Rising oil prices hurt the market.

Consumer: This is a responsible person of the Black Humor National Development and Reform Commission, said that the relief of the European debt crisis coupled with the geopolitical tension in the Middle East, the international market oil prices continue to shock and climb to reach the boundary conditions of domestic refined oil price adjustment, announced on the 7th, since February From midnight on the 8th, the price of gasoline and diesel will increase by 300 yuan per ton.

According to statistics, WTI crude oil prices rose significantly after mid-February. As of February 17, it was 103.24 US dollars / barrel, a 4.63% increase in the week. Singapore jet fuel prices also rose to 133.4 US dollars / barrel, up 1.33% a week. Brent crude oil prices rose to 123.34 US dollars / barrel, up 3.85% a week. Sources said that the United States and Europe plan to impose an oil embargo on Iran, which will lead to an increase in international oil prices, and the trend of oil prices will mainly depend on changes in the situation.

In the face of this worldwide rise in oil prices, the hearts of people of all countries are not at all interested. On February 15th, the Filipino people sieged a tanker and protested the rise in the price of oil. They accused the government of ignoring the weight of high oil prices on the people; Chinese netizens used the “black humour” that the “people of the country” once again “climbs to rising oil prices.” Heartfelt.

An increase of 300 yuan per ton is equivalent to a retail price increase of 0.22 yuan and 0.26 yuan per liter for gasoline No. 90 and No. 0 diesel. "This is the first price increase in 2012." According to a 50-litre barrel of oil, the number 90 gasoline per barrel rose by 11 yuan, according to the average office worker refueling 3-4 barrels a month, equal to each The monthly increase of 33 yuan to 44 yuan. Every day, there is a bus-free family of 4 yuan for transportation. The total monthly transportation fee is 80 yuan. This time, the increase in oil prices has increased the transportation cost of the car owners by one-half.

This is an ordinary office worker who travels to work alone, and the number of people who use more cars has increased even more. Ms. Yang, who runs the business, told reporters that the rise in oil prices caused her to spend more than a hundred yuan a month. She also said that the rise in international oil prices has also risen, but when international oil prices fell, the drop in prices did not seem so large.

"There is not much sense. Before that, it was down from this price. Now it is back to the original price." Mr. Chen, who used to go to work, said he was not involved. Obviously, he was a little numb about this kind of warm boiled frog-style price increase, how to live or how to live. "Now it has risen to 8! And if it goes on like this, I'm almost going to sell my car!" There are also small vans who, like Xiaofan, are meticulous and spend money cautiously on CARE, and when they hear the rise in oil prices, they are hysterical.

Analyst: Moderate upside is good Relative to people's cries of “not enough money to spend!”, Zeng Zhiling, LMC Asia Pacific’s director of market forecasting, is calm. He believes that the pricing of China's refined oil products and the entire supply system are monopolistic, and for the time being, it is an irreversible fact. Moreover, the trend of price increases should continue, because oil is a scarce resource, consumption is getting bigger, and supply will become more and more tense. Therefore, instead of complaining about rising oil prices, it may be worthwhile to look at the benefits of rising oil prices from another level, and actively look for ways to deal with the environment.

He believes that China's oil prices are in the middle ground, more expensive than the United States and Middle East countries, and cheaper than Europe, Japan, and Southeast Asia. They are not too expensive from international standards. Of course, this comparison also involves the country's welfare subsidy issue, so light is relatively sloppy compared to the price level.

In short, China's oil prices are not yet high enough to have a crucial impact on consumers' willingness to purchase cars, but they will certainly prompt him to consider the issue of large displacement or small displacement. At this level, oil prices are one of the indicators that guide consumers to make the right choices. Taking the United States as an example, it is the low oil prices that have led to the proliferation of large-capacity SUVs. Therefore, the moderate increase in oil prices has a certain degree of restraint on the control of cars to large-displacement development.

“The proportion of large-displacement vehicles in the United States is particularly high, and the proportion of large-displacement vehicles in the economy is quite large. This is because his oil prices are cheap. In Europe, the situation is exactly the opposite. European oil prices are quite expensive, so everyone has chosen small rows. The amount of cars. Large-displacement vehicles burden the environment is a kind of exaggerated and harmful luxury, completely unnecessary."

As oil prices rise, the demand for fuel-efficient consumers has increased, prompting factories to promote technology upgrades and develop new fuel-efficient technologies, such as turbocharged engines. Zeng Zhiling believes that the penetration rate of turbocharged engines will increase significantly in the future. "For example, the penetration rate in 2010 is 5%, and in 2018, the penetration rate of turbochargers will exceed 25%. Because turbo charging plus a high-end automatic Transmissions, or dual clutches, can save 18% of fuel consumption, and more such technologies will be widely promoted in the future."

A moderately modest increase in oil prices will drive advances in energy-saving technologies and changes in consumers' propensity to purchase cars. For companies, it is upgrading technology to meet consumer demand for fuel consumption. As consumers can do is choose a smaller displacement car, not to choose a high-emission car while complaining about high oil prices.

Dealers: Temporary security in the future market "Oil prices rose to more than 10 yuan will have an effect, so add a barrel of oil to more than 100 yuan, and now a few hairs a few hair to rise, a barrel of oil rose tens of dollars, no effect." Zhang Hao, assistant general manager of Zhejiang Zhongtai New Energy Automobile Technology Co., Ltd., told reporters.

At this moment, the increase in oil prices will have little impact on the auto market, and it will have little impact on sales of the German, American, and Japanese cars, especially luxury cars. "Customers who purchase Cayenne and Land Rover, high-fuel-consuming SUVs, will never ask what the fuel consumption is. For consumers of economical cars, it may have a great impact." The responsible person of a luxury car thinks that the current rising oil price The impact on their target consumer groups is almost zero.

Galaxy Securities auto analyst Li Dan believes that the higher the price of oil, the more obvious the advantages of small-displacement models. At the same time, she also believes that oil prices have a certain impact on the use of cars. "But from the big trend, there is little impact on the pattern of sales of passenger cars."

Of course, although the price of oil is not a determinant of consumers' purchase considerations, the rise in oil prices is a bad news after all. It certainly has a negative impact on the market outlook. Compared to the calm foreign brands, the lakes of independent brands were blown up. Zhou Benxue, chairman of the BYD Auto Dealer and Chongqing-Chongqing-Shanghai Auto Group, said that consumers of economic vehicles are very sensitive to price, and they are also concerned about the cost of vehicles. Certainly, they will lose some of their potential customers after the increase in oil prices.

Even so, the pace of the overall auto market will not change dramatically due to the fine tuning of oil prices. “At present, the increase in oil prices is not significant, and it has no effect on the auto market. However, the market will be polarized. On the one hand, small-displacement cars will be sought after, but on the other hand, the demand for luxury cars is still strong, especially in coastal areas. Increase in demand for redemption," Zeng Zhiling said.