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According to research and analysis, by the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, domestic methanol production is expected to reach 19 to 25 million tons. The market demand for the same period, including the methanol gasoline market, is approximately 18 million to 21 million tons, which is basically balanced with the existing and newly-built methanol production capacity. However, if methanol-gasoline-related standards are issued late, market access policies cannot be introduced, methanol-gasoline cannot be listed as expected, and the potential market for about 4 million tons of methanol will be frustrated, resulting in an excess of methanol production capacity.
The survey found that 25 methanol projects put into operation in 2006 were not included in the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics. This part of the total capacity of 3.084 million tons / year. In addition to the statistics of the National Bureau of Statistics, there were 142 methanol production enterprises in China in 2006, with a total capacity of 13.444 million tons per year. During the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, there were 42 new and proposed methanol projects in China. In the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, 35 projects that can be put into production have been identified, with a total capacity of 11.98 million tons/year. In addition, seven projects are still in the early stage of work, with a total capacity of 6.7 million tons/year. By the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†period, there will be about 200 methanol production enterprises in China, and the production capacity will reach 25 to 32 million tons. According to the 80% operating rate, the output is 19 to 25 million tons.
It is estimated that by the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€, formaldehyde production will consume approximately 4.7 million tons of methanol, acetic acid will consume 2.27 million tons of methanol, and methyl tert-butyl ether will consume 500,000 tons of methanol. Demand for methanol in pesticides, pharmaceuticals, dyestuffs, etc. will be relatively stable. The annual methanol demand will be about 2.6 to 3 million tons. Dimethyl ether can be used as a civilian fuel and can also be used as a diesel replacement product. It is expected that the production of dimethyl ether at the end of the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†will require 4.8 to 6 million tons of methanol. The methanol to olefins project itself is equipped with a methanol plant and it is not expected to purchase methanol from outside. If the methanol gasoline standard can be formulated in 2008, and the country allows methanol vehicles to be listed, and the supporting systems such as gas stations can be improved, by 2010 China's M85 ~ M100 (methanol content 85% ~ 100%) methanol car will reach About 10,000 vehicles need to consume about 200,000 tons of methanol fuel. In addition, M15 (15% methanol content) methanol gasoline will be directly mixed with about 3 million tons of methanol each year. In this way, the total annual demand for methanol is about 18 million to 21 million tons, which is basically the same as the production capacity.
The reporter learned from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Association that according to the industry’s dispute over the excess of methanol, a recent survey conducted by the association shows that whether methanol production capacity is surplus depends on whether the national methanol gasoline-related standards and market access policies are timely. Introduced.