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From the industry data, the price of petrochemical products has shown an upward trend. Among the 178 products tracked by the China Petrochemical Association, prices rose by 69.7% in January from the previous month, and rose by 60.1% in February.
There are three main factors that support the price cycle of petrochemical products. First of all, from a macro perspective, the rise in crude oil prices and the rise in other commodity prices have supported the rise in prices of petrochemical products. Although the price of crude oil has remained at the level of US$70-80/bbl since the end of October, it has doubled compared to US$35/bbl at the beginning of 2009, and the price increase of downstream chemical products has not been so large during the same period. The reason for this situation is that the consumption of low-cost raw material stocks takes some time, and there is a time difference between the price changes of downstream products and changes in crude oil prices.
In addition to cost support, with the global economy recovering, the rise in the prices of steel and non-ferrous commodities has also played a demonstration effect on the price increase of petrochemical products. At present, the prices of these products have basically recovered to the level before the international financial crisis. At the same time, the current level of inflation is relatively modest, which is also conducive to rising petrochemical prices.
Second, with the economic recovery, terminal demand improved, and the downstream industry's ability to increase the affordability of the upstream petrochemical industry or enhance the ability to transmit cost pressures downwards. At the same time, the demand for petrochemical products also increased, which constitutes a price increase for petrochemical products. basis. The downstream industries of the petrochemical industry are mainly real estate, automobiles, home appliances, textiles and clothing, and agricultural products.
Under the stimulation of the country's various policies to maintain growth, expand domestic demand, and adjust structural policies, these industries recovered significantly in 2009.
Data show that in 2009, domestic real estate investment reached US$1562 billion, which represented an increase of more than 1 times over the same period of last year and accounted for approximately 40% of the world's total; the sales volume of automobiles reached 13.64 million, becoming the largest in the world; the total output value of home appliance industry reached 743.2 billion yuan, an increase of 6.7 percent year-on-year. %, total profits and taxes increased by 43%; textile enterprises above designated size cumulative industrial output value of 37,979.89 billion yuan, an increase of 10.3%; total grain output reached 1061.6 million kilograms, an increase of 4.2 billion kilograms. Behind these increases is the recovery of demand for petrochemical products. Looking forward to this year, the domestic economy will continue to improve, and coupled with the improvement in exports brought about by the global economic recovery, the downstream demand for the petrochemical industry is expected to increase further.
Again, it is the change of market mentality. An important reason for the downturn in the petrochemical market in 2009 was that due to the impact of the international financial crisis, the market's mentality became cautious. Destocking led to a decrease in downstream demand for petrochemical producers, and the market began to regain confidence. At present, traders in the petrochemical industry generally believe that the price of petrochemicals has fallen to the bottom at the end of 2009, and as a result, social inventories began to rebound. Historical experience shows that traders' views can often amplify both the negative impact of the crisis and the positive impact of recovery.
Of course, the upward range of petrochemical prices this year should not be too optimistic and should be weaker than the end of 2007 to the beginning of 2008, at least under the current conditions. We should also see the suppression of demand from rising prices and the more widespread overcapacity in the petrochemical industry. The downstream demand of the petrochemical industry has not yet fully increased. The operating rate and sales volume of the petrochemical industry have not yet returned to the level before the international financial crisis broke out. After the operating rate is increased, the increase in supply will undoubtedly put pressure on the further rise in product prices.
Based on factors such as moderate inflation, gradual economic recovery and rising market confidence, oil and chemical products in the upper reaches of the industrial chain will enter a new cycle of price increases this year.