Ma Chaoying: Industrial upgrading of machinery industry exacerbates industry reshuffle

In 2011, the machinery industry achieved good results and the machinery industry continued to maintain its growth momentum. In 2012, it is still expected to continue to achieve double-digit growth. Ma Chaoying, director of the High Technology Development Department of China International Engineering Consulting Corporation, said in an interview with China Investment that in 2012, the growth rate of the production and sales of the machinery industry is expected to be around 18%, the product price will remain stable, and the profit growth will be lower than the production and sales. About 12%, export growth is expected to be around 15%.

Reporter: Please talk about the development trend of China's machinery industry in 2011.

Ma Chaoying: In 2011, under the national macroeconomic tightening environment, the machinery industry achieved good results, and the machinery industry continued to maintain its growth momentum, but it showed a general decline with the year-on-year increase in 2010.

The machinery industry's production and sales have been growing rapidly for many years. The growth rate in 2010 is as high as 34%. However, by 2011, the growth rate of all major economic indicators has generally declined. From January to November, the industrial added value increased by 15.4% year-on-year, down by 5.7 percentage points; the industrial output value increased by 25.62% year-on-year, falling by 8.31 percentage points; the cost was rapid. As a result, total financial expenses for January-October increased by 34.22% year-on-year, and labor costs increased by 15% year-on-year; profit growth fell much faster than production and sales, with a year-on-year increase of 18.11%, a decrease of 37.49 percentage points, which was lower than the national average growth rate. This is significantly lower than the 25.3% increase in profits realized by industrial enterprises above designated size in China.

Demand growth has slowed down, investment growth has been excessive, capacity has continued to expand, and vicious competition has intensified. From January to November 2011, the total investment in fixed assets of the industry was 2,517 billion yuan, an increase of 38.20% over the same period of last year, and the outbound nature of investment was obvious. The increase in orders has declined significantly, and the rapid expansion of production capacity has drastically intensified the contradiction between oversupply and demand. As a result, machinery companies have lost their pricing power in the face of users. This is another important reason for the drop in the profit margin of the industry in addition to rising costs.

Imports grew rapidly and domestic orders shunted. From January to October, the cumulative import of machinery products was US$266.1 billion, an increase of 24.91% year-on-year. The rapid growth of imports led to the diversion of orders from domestic companies and intensified the contradiction of insufficient demand. It is worth noting that the machinery industry has cumulatively incurred a deficit of US$20.5 billion from January to October, and the trade deficits between Germany and Japan, the world’s leading machinery industry countries, were as high as US$400 and US$50 billion, respectively, indicating the gap between China’s high-end equipment and the world’s advanced level. Very big. In addition, foreign investors are optimistic about the Chinese market and focus on increasing access to China's high-end equipment manufacturing industry, particularly in high-end hydraulic components, bearings, cutting tools, internal combustion engines, construction machinery, CNC machine tools and their functional components, large-scale agricultural machinery and other industries.

Sluggish external demand, export growth rate down. From January to October 2011, the machinery industry earned US$262.9 billion in foreign currency through exports, a year-on-year increase of 25.35%, which was nearly 7 percentage points lower.

It is worth noting that private enterprises account for about half of the total output value and total profit of the machinery industry. Foreign exchange earning accounts for more than 30%, and its growth rate is faster than the industry average of 10%. There is no doubt that this situation is conducive to enhancing the vitality of the development of the industry. At the same time, it will also enhance the industry's endogenous resilience and stability.

2011: The profound changes Reporter: In 2011, combined with the new changes in China's overall economic environment, what do you think are the new trends or trends in China's machinery industry that deserve attention?

Ma Chaoying: In 2011, under the pressure of the tightening of China's macroeconomic environment, the machinery industry accelerated the pace of structural adjustment, and a series of profound changes have also taken place.

1. The pace of product upgrade to high-end accelerated the development of clean energy equipment. From January to November, the output of hydropower generating units increased by 24.59% year-on-year, which was much higher than the 15.80% growth rate of thermal power. In the first half of the year, the output of thermal power equipment accounted for 66.9%, which was 5.38 percentage points lower than the same period of last year.

New advances in machine tool structure upgrades. The output growth of CNC machine tools and numerical control devices was significantly faster than that of ordinary machine tools, and the numerical control rate continued to increase. From January to November, the output of CNC metal-cutting machine tools increased by 25.72% year-on-year, faster than that of all metal-cutting machine tools by approximately 8 percentage points, and the proportion of CNC metal-cutting machine tool production in metal-cutting machine tools increased from 28% in the same period of 2010 to 30. %.

High-end instrument development momentum is strong. In the instrumentation industry, the growth rate of the output value of automated instruments reaches 35%, which is much higher than the average growth rate of the instrument industry by 25%; the profit rate of the main business income of the industry has reached 10%, far higher than the machinery industry of the same period is less than 7% The average profit margin, DCS systems representing the level of high-end control systems, and localization have made considerable progress; in addition, smart meters have also developed rapidly under the backdrop of smart grid heating.

A breakthrough has been made in the localization of long-distance natural gas transmission pipeline equipment. Previously imported 20,000-kilowatt-class compressors, drive motors, frequency conversion devices and pipeline valves have all been successfully developed and passed user tests, and will be installed and operated in the West-East Gas Pipeline Project.

2. There are new breakthroughs in the key basic parts and components. The high-end hydraulic parts made with a huge gap are beginning to appear. Large projects with billions of investment have been launched, and the host industry has begun to enter the field in a large scale, which is expected to ease the long-term bottlenecks that restrict the localization of high-end hosts.

High-voltage AC and DC insulation bushings and transformer outlets, natural gas pipelines and large-scale thermal power and nuclear power equipment valves, high-end seals for nuclear power installations, non-oriented high-quality niobium steel sheets for large hydro-generator units, and tear-resistant thick steel plates, The independent innovation of ultra-high voltage large-scale transformers for cold rolled high-quality oriented silicon steel sheets and ultra-high-parameter castings and forgings has achieved a series of gratifying breakthroughs.

Progress has been made in the localization of power plant forgings, and one- and two-megawatt low-pressure rotor forgings have been realized in China, and 300,000 kilowatt-class power station forgings have occupied more than half of the domestic market share.

3. The development of modern manufacturing industry, the extension of the industrial chain, Hangzhou Oxygen, Sichuan Air Distribution, Shaanxi Drum and other enterprises from the manufacturing of air separation equipment and compressors to the extension of construction gas stations, both for their own expansion of new business areas, opened up a sustainable through The new space for profit from operations has solved the difficulties of some small and medium-sized users unable to purchase air separation equipment.

The power generation equipment manufacturing industry has generally increased its efforts to “go global” and to build turnkey projects for power plants abroad, which has eased the decline in domestic orders. At the same time, efforts are being made to explore the possibility of entering the power construction market in developed countries through in-depth cooperation with international counterparts; in addition, by taking advantage of the technological advantages of manufacturing conventional power generation equipment, we are beginning to engage in new fields such as desalination equipment manufacturing.

The remanufacturing of the automotive industry, construction machinery industry, internal combustion engine industry, and cultural office equipment manufacturing industry has attracted more and more companies' attention and has started. While contributing to the development of circular economy, it also expands the company's own new development space.

4. Regional structure continues to adjust in the expected direction According to statistics, in the first half of the central and western regions, the proportion of the total output value of the machinery industry increased by 1.19% and 0.24% year-on-year, while that of the eastern region decreased by 1.43%. From the perspective of investment in fixed assets, the investment growth in the central and western regions in the first half of the year was faster than the 20.08% and 13.36% in the east.

The above changes show that the development environment of the machinery industry has undergone and will continue to undergo profound changes. The extensive development environment that has survived in previous years has passed. The tightening development environment is forcing the machinery industry to give up the speed scale and take physical orders first. High-speed growth is a traditional development model that supports and consumes resources and energy at a cost.

Reporter: In the process of the development of the machinery industry, what problems are urgently needed to be solved?

Ma Chaoying: In the past ten years, China's machinery industry has achieved rapid development. The development of high-end power equipment, engineering machinery, and numerical control machine tools has been relatively rapid. However, many key components and supporting products have lagging behind in development and still need to be imported. Hosting development. The basic bottlenecks restricting the development of high-end equipment manufacturing industry are: high-end CNC machine tools and basic manufacturing equipment as the representative of the working mother machine, high-performance test equipment and automatic control system represented by high-end measurement and control systems, high-grade hydraulic parts, high-end bearings, High-end electrical components such as the representative of the basic components and a variety of special high-quality special materials.

On the whole, China's machinery industry still has many problems. Its independent innovation capability is weak and it cannot effectively support the upgrading of products. Overcapacity is serious, which exacerbates the market's disorderly competition and vicious price competition. The shortage of high-quality human resources makes it difficult to ensure the health of the industry. Development and so on.

2012: Continue to maintain double-digit growth Reporter: What should be the focus of the "12th Five-year" development strategy for the machinery industry?

Ma Chaoying: With regard to the key points of the "12th Five-Year Plan" development strategy for the machinery industry, I am more in favor of the following expression in the industry: "mainly for high-end, solid foundation, innovation-driven, fusion of the two, green for the first."

In the adjustment of product structure, it highlights “mainly attacking high-end and lays a solid foundation”; in terms of development methods, it highlights “innovation-driven, fusion of the two, green-first”.

“Main attack high end”: that is, mainly attacking high-tech products. To pursue high-quality products, we must not stop at prototype breakthroughs, but we must pursue continuous and stable production. At the same time, we must pay attention to the development of modern manufacturing service industry, win the trust of users, and steadily occupy the market. .

“Foundation foundation”: It is to solidify the basic bottleneck for the development of high-end equipment, including the processing of mother machines, measurement and control systems, key components, special high-quality materials, etc., to greatly improve the level of basic technology such as casting, welding, heat treatment.

"Innovation-driven" is to promote the development of the industry, shifting from over-reliance on factor input to relying more on technological innovation, personnel quality, and management level; innovation requires technological innovation, but also must devote to mechanism innovation.

"Two integrations" means the integration of information technology and traditional technology at the three levels of "product, management, and philosophy."

"Green is first" means that energy saving, emission reduction and material saving work should be done in both mechanical products and the industry's own production process.

After entering the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, with the deepening of the modernization process, we will pay more attention to the development of product quality, and the requirements for the equipment level will be even higher. Industry transformation and upgrading, energy saving and emission reduction, transformation of development methods, and development of strategic emerging industries in all walks of life put forward higher requirements for the technical level, intelligence, quality, and reliability of mechanical industrial products. To enable the machinery industry to continue to develop healthily and sustainably, it is only by resolving and improving the ability of independent innovation of enterprises, accelerating transformation and upgrading, structural adjustment, and deepening the reform of the enterprise, can the transformation of the development mode be implemented.

Reporter: Looking ahead to 2012, what do you think of the development of machinery and equipment manufacturing industry?

Ma Chaoying: To achieve stable growth in 2012, the key is to further accelerate the transformation and upgrading and structural adjustment. In 2011, the increase in demand for China's machinery industry declined significantly. It is expected that the growth rate will continue to decline moderately in 2012, and the increase in demand will gradually return to normal in the second half of the year, but it is difficult to reproduce the prevailing situation in the previous decade. The pressure of tight supply of resources and rising costs will continue to be maintained for a long time. The more serious challenge is how to effectively cope with the excessive expansion of production capacity. In this process, the survival of the fittest will become increasingly acute. Companies that rely on independent innovation, product upgrades, key component manufacturing technologies, and core competitiveness are expected to rise rapidly; companies that lack core competitiveness and have no characteristics or advantages in products and processes will be involved in ruthless In the vicious price war, there is a dilemma that the benefits have been falling and even eliminated.

It is expected that the pressure in 2012 will be less than in 2011, macroeconomic policies are expected to be fine-tuned, and industrial policies will continue to be conducive to the development of the machinery industry in the direction of industrial upgrading. In 2012, it is still expected to continue to achieve double-digit growth. Among them, the growth rate of the production and sales of the machinery industry is expected to be around 18%, the product price will remain stable, the profit growth will be lower than the production and sales, is expected to be about 12%, and the export growth is expected to be around 15%.