Cars to the countryside lead the dispute in the third quarter of the auto market growth or the second bottom

Saving the market or not saving the city is a problem. The rumors of the policy of returning home from the countryside to the countryside have returned and are still missing. Zhang Xiangmu, Director of the Department of Equipment Industry of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, revealed to the media that various ministries and commissions are currently conducting studies on the re-introduction of the automobile to the countryside policy, and there are different opinions in various aspects.

Controversy "Save the City or Not Save the City"

Zhang Xiangmu said that the policy on the automobile to the countryside is currently under study. The starting point of each person is different, and it is reasonable to launch a stimulus policy, but there is no reason why it is not. "So now all the ministries must negotiate in many aspects, and ultimately they will fall to one point, how they will be supported and what policies will best suit the current auto market situation."

It is understood that the large-scale automobile consumption subsidy policy implemented in the past two years eventually led to the ups and downs of the market. The current auto market, after being fully adjusted, is returning to rationality and signs of recovery. Therefore, there are opinions that no stimulus policies should be introduced to interfere with the operation and adjustment of the market itself.

But Cui Dongshu, an analyst at the CSC, believes: “The automobile rescue policy should be there.” He said that if the state must have some measures to stimulate economic development, the automobile industry’s rescue policy should have, and it cannot simply negate the positive significance of the policy, but rather To study how to better reflect the effectiveness of policies, we must think more about ways than simply criticize and deny.

In the third quarter, the growth rate of the automobile or the bottom of the second inspection, according to the inspection by the CCC, the terminal market for passenger cars remained sluggish in June. The first reason is that the economic environment has not improved, and the effect of the drop in oil price to stimulate consumer confidence is extremely insignificant; followed by manufacturers. The self-rescue promotions brought about by the pressures of sales promotion and dealership inventory are intertwined, and consumers feel that the market price is not stable; in addition, consumers have already formed expectation expectations for stimulus policies and have a wait-and-see attitude.

The data shows that the proportion of retail sales in the automotive market has reached about 30% of retail sales above the scale. However, from January to May this year, the retail sales of goods above designated size reached RMB 3.5 trillion, an increase of 15%, while the retail sales of automobiles were RMB 897.7 billion, an increase of 9.8%. Automobile consumption lags far behind household consumption growth.

"The third quarter of this year may be the second bottom of the growth rate of autos. Auto market consumption accounted for a large proportion of total consumption, and greater flexibility, the auto market's second bottom is a disaster to China's economy." Cui Dongshu believes that even the economy in the third quarter is weak. It is flat, but the second bottom of the auto market will shatter the anticipation of the economic downturn. Therefore, it is still necessary to introduce some short-term stimulus policies as soon as possible so that the economy can reach the bottom in the third quarter. The stimulus to the auto market is the most obvious.

First of all, we should rescue our own brands. "From the perspective of market law, we don't need to save the market, but now we need to save our own brands." Auto analyst Cheng Xiaodong of the National Development and Reform Commission Price Monitoring Center told the Nanfang Daily reporter that the current situation facing independent brands is very serious. Should promote the merger and reorganization of enterprises, guide consumers to buy small-displacement energy-saving models. Cars to the countryside can promote the development of the second and third tier markets and can also be implemented.