The new round of refined oil price adjustment window opened or rose for the first time in the year.

Data Map: A Sinopec gas station in Xicheng District, Beijing. Zhongxin Qiu Yushe

The new round of refined oil price adjustment window will be opened at 24:00 on January 26, and several agencies predict that oil prices may rise slightly.

According to Longzhong Information, as of January 24, the comprehensive change rate of crude oil was 2.26%, which is expected to increase by RMB 60/ton for gasoline and diesel. Zhuo Chuang Information estimates increase by RMB 55/t.

In 2018, the price adjustment of domestic refined oil was only carried out once. On January 12, gasoline was increased by 180 yuan/ton, and diesel was raised by 175 yuan/ton.

Domestic oil prices are linked to international crude oil prices. In the current price adjustment cycle, international crude oil prices have experienced a “roller coaster” trend that has been falling.

"According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised economic growth expectations and the weakening US dollar, Brent oil prices climbed above $70, refreshing the three-year high since December 3, 2014, and the market is bullish." Yu Xiaofen, an analyst at Urumqi, said that the international oil market has returned to shocks because of the “explosive” growth of crude oil production in the United States and the unclear prospects for production cuts in oil-producing countries.

As of the close of January 24, the US WTI crude oil futures closed up 1.14 US dollars to US$65.61 per barrel. Brent crude oil futures closed up 0.57 US dollars to 70.53 US dollars / barrel.

From the perspective of domestic refined oil retailing, Long Yan Information Analyst Li Yan said that the preferential policies for gas stations in the near future were basically the same as those in the previous period, and the preferential rate of major stations such as Sinopec was mostly around 0.5-0.7 yuan per litre, while private gas stations The discount rate is more than 0.5-1.2 yuan / liter.

Zhuo Chuang, an analyst with Dai Tiandong, pointed out that the recent cold weather, and the increase in rain and snow, the increase in private car trips, so the gasoline demand performance is acceptable. He said that it is expected that the rate of increase will not be significant this time. Although the cost of travel will increase, it should be within the scope of the owner's acceptance.

The next round of price adjustments will open at 24:00 on February 9, 2018. Li Yan believes that at present, the international oil price is high and the favorable factors still have the upper hand. But near 70 US dollars, they also face psychological resistance, and they continue to break momentum or are limited. It is expected that the next round of oil product price adjustment will be more likely to be stranded or smaller.