Domestic product oil price is reduced by 52 yuan per box of 92 gasoline

Image Source: Vision China

After going through five rounds of upswings, domestic refined oil prices have finally come down.

On June 8, the website of the National Development and Reform Commission released news that domestic gasoline and diesel prices have been lowered by RMB 130/ton and RMB 125/ton since 24 hours today. The number of gasoline equivalents of No. 92 and No. 0 was reduced by 0.1 yuan and 0.11 yuan per liter respectively. With the standard calculation of a 50-liter automobile fuel tank, a full tank of No. 92 gasoline can save 5 yuan.

Zhongyu Information Oil Product Analyst Zhu Yinghua told the interface news reporter that in the current round of valuation cycle, the international crude oil price showed a sharp decline overall, affecting the end of domestic refined oil prices and ushering in a downward adjustment, due to the next round of price adjustment window will be smaller in the Dragon Boat Festival. After the end of the long vacation, the user's oil costs during the Dragon Boat Festival can also be reduced.

Ding Xu, an oil product analyst at Longzhong Petrochemicals, said that after this round of price adjustment, the retail price limit for gasoline No. 92 in most regions of the country will be within the range of 7.2-7.4 yuan/liter, and diesel oil will basically fall below 7 yuan/liter.

“Although the discount rate for gas stations is stable at RMB 0.6-0.8/l, the current price of refined oil is higher than the same period of last year,” Ding Xu said. “In Shandong, for example, domestic refined oil prices rose after gas station offers in the same period last year. The price is only around 4.8 yuan."

At present, domestic refined oil has undergone eleven rounds of price adjustment cycles, showing "seven ups, three downs and one down". The cumulative increase of gasoline and diesel was 1,155 yuan/ton and 1,110 yuan/ton, respectively, and the cumulative reduction range was 435 yuan/ton and 410 yuan/ton. After rising and falling, the gasoline and diesel prices rose 590 yuan/ton and 575 yuan/year respectively. Ton.

Reviewing the current round of pricing cycles, US crude oil production continued to grow. At the same time, under the influence of negative factors such as OPEC's increase in production and the rebound of the US dollar exchange rate, the international oil price as a whole showed a sharp decline, hitting a new low in nearly two months.

On June 7, the international oil price rebounded strongly due to concerns that Venezuelan production was declining due to partial supply tightness, and that some member states that OPEC may not be able to open up production options. As of June 8th, Beijing time, crude oil futures for delivery in July rose 1.22 US dollars, or 1.88%, to 65.95 US dollars / barrel; August Brent crude oil futures prices closed up 1.96 US dollars, or 2.60%, reported US$77.32/barrel, the highest since Friday.

However, the international crude oil prices in the current round of the pricing cycle were low and the average price of crude oil fell significantly compared with the previous cycle. On June 8, the increase in international oil prices did not affect the reduction of domestic refined oil prices.

"The new round of pricing cycle, the possibility of domestic product oil prices stranded or slightly upward." Zhuo Chuang information oil analyst Wang Luqing forecast.

Wang Luqing believes that the international crude oil market waits for the OPEC meeting on June 22. The discussion of the oil producing country on whether to increase production will continue. The price of US crude oil futures may fluctuate widely in the range of $64-66/barrel. At the same time, Iran and Venezuela have the risk of supply disruption, which has provided support to the fundamentals. In the next cycle, international crude oil may show slight upward movements.

Luo Yan Petrochemical net oil analyst Li Yan said that the current international crude oil price level calculation, the next round of refined oil price adjustment will start the trend of downward adjustment, the rate of 40 yuan / ton, but the downward trend is not stable.

“The recent rise and fall in international oil prices have shown considerable turmoil. Markets are concerned that OPEC production and US crude oil production will continue to rise negatively. However, OPEC’s internal differences in production increase and the advent of the US consumer season bring good support. In an empty game, bad The factors are slightly better,” said Li Yan. “The OPEC meeting held on June 22 will have a resolution on increasing production or maintaining production reduction in the later period. This will provide wind direction guidance for oil prices, and it is expected that the next round of oil product price adjustments will run aground or rise slightly. Bigger."

According to the current price adjustment cycle of domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, the 12th round of the price adjustment window for gasoline and diesel in 2018 will be opened at 24:00 on June 25.