The short-term adjustment of the passenger vehicle industry since 2004 has ended and the industry turning point has been confirmed. According to the development law of the automobile popularization stage in the United States, Japan, and other countries, coupled with the characteristics of China's row-type growth, China's passenger cars have embarked on the growth track that may last 8 to 10 years in the future, Shanghai Automotive (8.28,0.24,2.99% ) (600104) and other listed companies may also usher in a longer period of prosperity.

For commercial vehicle companies, structural adjustment is still the main theme, and it is important to master key value-added processes such as engines.

Passenger car inflection point has been confirmed

With the declining prices and rising income, the demand for domestic cars from second-tier cities and developed villages has been rapidly stimulated. In these areas, there are few restrictions on roads, parking, exhaust emissions, and licenses. The release of demand is likely to result in an increase in the size of household appliances and housing.

Since 2006, the unexpectedly high growth in the family car market seems to confirm this judgment. From January to October of 2006, domestic passenger car sales increased by 31.68% year-on-year, exceeding the growth rate of total automobile sales by 6 percentage points, accounting for 71.3% of the total sales of automobiles.

According to the general rule, the growth rate of automobile demand is the product of the growth rate of consumer income (GDP growth rate) and the corresponding income elasticity coefficient. The average international average elasticity coefficient is between 1.8 and 2.5, but due to the Chinese consumption The phenomenon, its elasticity coefficient has risen to about 3.0.

There is another key factor to consider: car consumption loans. In the growth of domestic family cars from 2002 to 2003, 10% was driven by consumer loans. In 2006, the personal credit system has been established. Given this stimulating effect, a conservative estimate of auto consumption loans can increase automobile demand by 5 to 10%. Taken together, the growth rate of passenger car sales in the future is about 25 to 30%, and its high point is about 40%.

Sustained demand release has eased the problem of overcapacity and industry profits have also grown rapidly. From January to October 2006, the total automobile manufacturing industry realized a total profit of 2.86 billion yuan. At the same time, the total monthly profit in 2006 was slightly higher than in 2005, reflecting that the profitability of auto companies has bottomed out.

What will start soon is a long-distance running, but what is clear is that not all companies can stick to the end. It depends on the company itself and more on the evolution of the industry.

Because of its cost advantage, self-owned brand passenger vehicles will gain a firm foothold in the relatively low-end (small) passenger car market, and then gradually extend to the high-end market. In this process, the self-branded companies with outstanding technical capabilities will take the lead and gain extra profits, and the joint venture market will gradually be compressed.

We believe that in the field of passenger vehicles, passenger vehicles companies that have a preference for medium-to-high-end self-owned brands and have strong M&A capabilities, such as Shanghai Automotive (600104), will be selected to share the growth of the passenger vehicle industry in the coming years. Shanghai Auto’s main growth in 2007 was on the one hand the sales growth of Shanghai Volkswagen and Shanghai GM and Ssangyong’s turnaround. On the other hand, sales of its own brand, Roewe, are likely to exceed market expectations.

The structural adjustment of commercial vehicles is the main theme

The structural adjustment of commercial vehicles is still the main theme, and it is very important for enterprises to grasp key value-added sectors such as engines.

According to our research, due to the continuous sales growth of heavy trucks for many years, the space for growth in terms of simple numbers has been significantly reduced relative to the size of the domestic economy. More than 60% of its annual demand has been updated from old cars. The connotation of growth in the coming years will be mainly structural adjustments, and products will develop to large tonnages.

The growth of domestic and foreign bus industry will be slightly higher than the growth rate of GDP in the coming few years due to the demand of tourism and public transportation. Due to the cost advantage of domestic large and medium-sized passenger vehicles, the growth of its exports deserves close attention. We expect that between 2010 and 2015, the domestic demand for large and medium-sized passenger cars will reach historical highs, and domestic demand will slowly decline thereafter, and exports will gradually become the main driving force for growth.

Due to the improvement of emission standards, continuous reduction in prices, and high cost, the key links in the commercial vehicle industry chain have shifted to parts such as engines and downstream marketing brands.

Heavy truck engines, axles and gearboxes are becoming the strategic commanding points for the development of heavy trucks. The Euro 3 standard has been implemented in Beijing, Guangzhou, and other places, followed by the nationwide rollout, followed by the Euro 4 and Euro 5 standards. The technical requirements for domestic heavy-duty truck engines are getting higher and higher. More importantly, the speed of standards increase far exceeds that of domestic heavy-duty truck engines, and the speed with which independent brands rely on self-accumulation to enhance technological capabilities, which makes the heavy-duty truck industry The shift in the key value chain, that is, key components and downstream market services and brands have become the major value-added links, and the processing and assembly links are increasingly becoming tasteless.

By comparing the competitiveness of various domestic groups, we have found that Weichai-Hunan Torch-Shaanxi Group (Hunan Torch 000549) with Weichai Power as its core is seeking a strategic commanding point—more comprehensive business and technical capabilities. Stronger, larger, and lower cost. The current problem is that the company has not yet completed its internal integration. However, its continuous competitive advantage is very obvious and deserves close attention. In addition, Yutong Bus (13.14, -0.07, -0.53%) (600066), which is famous for its brand and marketing capabilities, also deserves attention.



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