In recent years, new changes have taken place in the development of the electric vehicle industry. Countries and major car companies in the world have shifted the strategic focus of the industry to a new technology route with electric vehicles as the core, and they are continuously optimistic about the capital market. China has also further liberalized the joint venture ratio of electric vehicles, and has issued related policies such as double-pointing, and electric vehicle has become a general trend. At present, China's electric vehicle industry is in the process of being driven by the government to market-driven. With the government subsidy and the entry of foreign brands, China's electric vehicle industry will face new opportunities and challenges. Whether it is the government management ideas or the direction of the company's development, it needs to make relevant changes. Chen Qingtai, chairman of the Committee of 100, gave a summary of the development trend of electric vehicles this year, conducted in-depth consideration of the above issues, and put forward relevant suggestions. Four Development Trends of Electric Vehicles since 2016 2016 was a landmark year for the development of electric vehicles. From this year onwards, many important domestic and foreign companies have transformed into electric vehicles, which has exceeded the expectations of many people. 1. Countries have issued timetables to ban the sale of traditional fuel vehicles The earliest was Norway and the Netherlands, the first to announce the ban on the sale of traditional fuel vehicles by 2035; then Germany announced that by 2030, France and the United Kingdom announced this year that by 2040 they would ban the sale of conventional diesel and gasoline vehicles; India also announced that it would be necessary in 2030. Elimination of all petrol and diesel vehicles. It is worth mentioning that Germany, as the world's most powerful fuel vehicle producer, their cabinet proposed in November 2016 that it would be banned from selling traditional fuel vehicles in 2030, which caused a sensation in the global industry. 2. The major auto and parts companies quickly switched to new energy vehicles Volvo announced that by 2019 each vehicle will be fitted with batteries; Lincoln, Jaguar, Land Rover, etc. also announced that all its models should be fully electric; Volkswagen recently announced at the German auto show to launch more than 80 models of electric vehicles, while In 2025, sales of new energy vehicles will reach 200-300 million; BMW Group announced that it will provide five series of nine new energy vehicles in China, including pure electric, plug-in and hybrid vehicles; General Motors announced that by 2020 The company will launch more than 10 new energy vehicles in the Chinese market; Toyota, which focuses on hybrid power, also set up a department responsible for the design and development of pure electric vehicles in November 2016. It will be directly led by Toyoda and will be completed by 2020. And to improve the production system of pure electric vehicles; Ford announced that in the next 5 years to invest 4.5 billion US dollars for the research and development of new energy vehicles, by 2020 there will be 13 new energy vehicles available on the market; not long ago, Mercedes-Benz also solemnly announced that it will Before 2022, all production stops will stop the sale of traditional fuel vehicles. In the future, only hybrid and pure electric vehicles will be provided, and 50 new electric vehicle models will be added. In terms of parts and components, Delphi, the largest US parts and components company, announced on May 3 this year that it will fully spin off its powertrain. The original company will focus on the electrical and electronic business, especially autopilot, smart technology, and security. Technology and so on, after the announcement of its stock price soared. Bosch, the world’s largest parts and components company, announced at the same time that it will sell its starter and engine business for fuel vehicles, while it also sold 7,000 employees in its business unit. 3. Capital markets are optimistic about autonomous driving and sharing cars According to a recent report released by Morgan Stanley, if the Google’s self-driving company, Waymo, is split, the latter’s valuation will reach US$70 billion or more. At present, Uber's market share of Uber is between US$50-70 billion, Ford Motor Company’s market value is US$44 billion, General Motors’ market capitalization is US$50 billion, and Tesla is also close to US$50 billion. Obviously, the market value of Google's spin-off Waymo is the highest. Why does Morgan Stanley give Waymo such a high valuation? Even higher than the valuation of GM Ford? Because it represents the future of the automotive industry. It has been reported that although there are still many problems in the legal and people's awareness of auto-driving cars that need to be solved, auto-driving will be a major trend. Including traditional companies, Internet companies, car companies, software companies, and even Apple companies that previously only focused on consumer electronics are investing in the driverless area. Some media commented: "Inherent stereotypes have been put down earlier than late, because the future is coming in much faster than we thought." In 2016, Google’s driverless car mileage in California was 640,000 miles, a 50% increase from 2015, but the number of reportable manual takeovers—the number of times that humans had to intervene to interfere with automated driving—is From 341 in 2015 to 124 in last year. In other words, mileage increased from 2015, but the number of manual interventions has dropped by more than half. At present, the total number of Waymo driverless miles has reached 2.3 million miles. According to media reports, on March 12th, Intel purchased the mobile eye of Israeli unmanned technology company Mobileye for 15.3 billion US dollars, hoping to combine the company’s cloud technology with Mobile Eye’s advanced driverless technology. Used to develop driverless cars. Ford Motor Company's market value is only 44 billion US dollars, and such an unknown company to do video software, the market value has reached 15.3 billion US dollars. Intel's price is so high, it shows how high the value of drone. At present, the mobile eye has announced the development of a fully automated driving program. In the second half of this year, there will be at least 40 vehicles that will begin road tests and will enter the market in 2021. 4. Judging and advice from senior analysts, experts, and scholars Richard Foster, a senior partner at McKinsey, said in December last year, “The automotive industry has entered a period of creative destruction and the defenders will face enormous challengesâ€. The automotive industry has always been regarded as a complex system of industries. Some people think that it is very difficult for competitors to have the opportunity to subvert the industry. It is difficult even to enter the industry. Richard said that this argument may be plausible 100 years ago. In the 21st century, the huge personnel system and capital structure owned by traditional car companies are no longer an advantage, but rather an obstacle to enterprise transformation. The pattern of interests leaves traditional companies lacking the courage to venture out and explore new areas. This may make traditional businesses stale, and thus fall into a subversive crisis. In the field of electric vehicles, creative destruction has already taken place, such as Uber’s online car service, Google’s exploration of autonomous driving technology, and further upgrading of artificial intelligence. Richard Foster said that with the further breakthrough of new technologies such as smart devices, big data applications, and network connected technologies, it will bring more far-reaching impact to the automotive industry. He also said that the attackers and defenders of an industry will face greater challenges and difficulties. Of course it is a defender. There is no dilemma for the attackers, just like Tesla's new car makers. It is precisely this kind of traditional car company that is in trouble. Stanford University economist Tony Xiba pointed out in April 2017, “Reflection on Transport, 2020-2030†that the next few years will be the eruption of electric vehicles. From the perspective of the cost curve, all new cars will be available by 2025. It will be an electric car. Any machine that runs on wheels will be electric because it costs only 1/10 of the cost of a fuel machine. In other words, in 2025, the world will no longer have gasoline and diesel cars, buses and trucks for sale. Once the data confirms how dangerous human driving cars are, people in the city will be forbidden to drive cars, people will collectively turn to self-driving electric cars, existing vehicles will be idle in large quantities, traffic will turn to electrification throughout the road, and oil prices will plummet. . Only those who are nostalgic and those who hold the old habits of cars will buy cars, and others will adapt to vehicles that are ready for use. The next generation of cars will be "computers on wheels," and companies like Google, Apple and Foxconn will have destructive advantages. The origins of this change in electric vehicles were in Silicon Valley, not in Detroit in the United States, in Wolfsburg in Germany, and in Toyota in Japan. Not long ago, the British "The Economist" published an article titled "The Doom of the Engine: The Cars Going to the Electric Age." The article believes that the internal combustion engine is one of the most important inventions of the past century. Its appearance has reshaped the infrastructure business scene of the world, but the revolution in the field of road traffic is accelerating, and the ever-changing battery technology has increasingly strict emissions. Regulations are about to disrupt the automotive industry, and electric vehicles will become the mainstream of the future. Today, the world has more than one billion cars, almost entirely driven by fossil fuels. The internal combustion engine is the most powerful engine in human history. The horsepower of all American vehicles is equivalent to 10 times the power generation capacity of the US power station. Although the internal combustion engine was once brilliant, this changed the end of the world's machinery. The combination of electric and shared and driverless technologies may allow the transport service model to replace most of its own vehicles. The most extreme estimate is that the auto industry may shrink in size. Large-scale sharing of driverless electric cars will allow cities to change parking lots into new homes. When the oil industry forecasted when demand peaked, the Royal Dutch Shell stated that it may take only 10 or more years for oil to reach its peak. Before that, oil prices will be affected because no one wants to persist. In the end, a large amount of unused oil was still accumulated in the ground. At the end of the article, the 21st-century unmanned electric car may change the world to a degree that we could not imagine, just like a 20th-century diesel locomotive. Some points of information passed from the development trend Since 2016, the development trend of electric vehicles has given people a feeling of rain and turmoil. Some countries have promoted electric vehicles so much, and some enterprises are surprised at the speed of transformation. What experts and scholars say Not sensational. This is the subversive nature of electric vehicles. This is the third industrial revolution. 1. By 2025 at the latest, the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles will meet or exceed traditional fuel vehicles. This means that the market will use more and more powerful forces to promote consumer transformation, fuel vehicles and electric vehicles will enter a rapid process of this upswing, perhaps this alternative can not be as fast as smart phones instead of feature phones, but it is possible Will be the process of digital cameras instead of color film, that is, about 10 years. 2. The technical progress of electric vehicles is a two-line operation One front is batteries, motors, and electric controls. They mainly guarantee the basic functions of electric vehicles, but this is only the 1.0 version of electric vehicles. The other front is informationization, network integration, and intelligence. It is mainly to satisfy the ever-increasing consumer experience requirements, and eventually to achieve unmanned driving. This is necessary for the electric car to enter the 2.0 and 3.0 editions. Some institutions and scholars have defined electric vehicles as "computers on wheels." This view deserves our great attention, and only two fronts can possibly stand still. While we are studying basic issues such as batteries, motors, and electronic control, we must not overlook its informatization and intelligent development issues because the core of subsequent competition is here. 3. Motorization is the trend According to the law of market development, when the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles reaches or exceeds that of fuel vehicles, the market has sufficient driving forces to transform the habits of consumers. Why do so many countries still have to propose a timetable for the ban on the sale of traditional fuel vehicles and add a fire to the market? Apart from their own considerations, the significance of the government's decisive action is to give society a long-term expectation. On the whole, electric vehicles instead of fuel vehicles must be a major creative destruction. To give full play to the potential of electric vehicles, we must take precautions to prepare ourselves in an orderly manner from such aspects as energy, infrastructure, electrification, informationization, industrial chain transformation, employee transfer, government supervision, and laws and regulations. Formulating a timetable will be conducive to the coordination and smooth promotion of the government and enterprises. This timetable is an encouragement for companies that develop pure electric vehicles. It is a relentless force for traditional fuel vehicle companies. It will ultimately benefit everyone. With the successive release of national government timetables, its effectiveness has begun to show up, and major auto companies have made major changes. This timetable is not unrelated. For traditional auto companies in these countries, it is possible to avoid repeating the mistakes of Kodak's tragedy. 4. The electric car is the core of the third industrial revolution. It can better connect the future In the second industrial revolution, automobiles and internal combustion engines relied on powerful driving forces to reshape the global infrastructure and modern life. It was called a machine that changed the world. Today, the reason why electric cars can change the world again is that it can best connect with the future. What is the future? The future is new energy, especially distributed energy. The future is smart grid. The future is smart transportation. The future is smart city. The future is what we call the future. And these iconic future scenarios, a basic unit is electric cars. Electric cars can be the best match for these futures, or to achieve those future scenarios that need electric vehicles to support, it will create a future based on shared cars and driverless travel. Electric vehicles can also solve some of our current economic and social pain points, such as energy structure, environment, and transportation problems. These are exactly what the Chinese people expect and the government is trying hard to solve. China's economy, technology and industry have already had a fairly good foundation. If we grasp it properly, China may gain greater advantage in winning the future through the development of electric vehicles. Some current hot issues 1.Compared with the study of time nodes, it is more important to clarify the reasons for the prohibition of the sale of fuel vehicles. Since 2016, Norway, the Netherlands, Germany, France, the United Kingdom, and India have successively proposed to stop the sale of fuel vehicles. China is also studying the timetable for the suspension of the sale of conventional fuel vehicles. The impact of the ban on the sale of fuel vehicles by various countries is enormous, and the impact on the automotive industry is far-reaching. The international auto giants have begun to transform and deploy electric vehicles and have launched an electric timetable. The timing of the sale of fuel vehicles in China depends on the government’s final research decision and may be earlier or later. This is not the most important thing. The most important thing is to see clearly why the government has to extend its hands only to intervene in the market at this time. The ban on the sale of fuel vehicles will have many impacts, such as the loss of assets, the destruction of jobs, the subversion and reconstruction of the industrial chain, and the adjustment of energy structure. If it is only for the purpose of replacing fuel oil with electricity, the current fuel oil is far from depletion, and the fuel price is not expensive at present; if it is based on considerations of environmental issues, the Euro VI and Euro VI emission standards can generally be controlled. Why ban fuel cars? If the Chinese government does not completely understand this set of things and how to do it, it will bring sequelae in the future. Fuel cars were once known as machines that changed the world. Today, electric cars will once again change the world. However, we should realize that the transformation of fuel vehicles into electric vehicles is ultimately driven by market forces. The government bans this tangible hand, actually to solve some social problems. If there is a timetable, follow-up All work can be done and the benefits brought by it can be more shared in the third industrial revolution. But whether it is a matter of major importance, such as the year in which it is possible to ban the sale of fuel vehicles, it is not for the head to decide. First of all, we must have a full understanding of the ban and find out why bans are sold and what are the necessary reasons. Otherwise, if there is an argument in the community, the government cannot explain it. When we truly understand the meaning of the ban and understand the future of EVs, we should set the time early. 2. "Double Points" is good for all Chinese car companies On September 28, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology released the “Measures for the concurrent management of the average fuel consumption of enterprises and new energy vehicle integration pointsâ€, which will be formally implemented on April 1, 2018. The requirements for new energy vehicle points for car companies will be postponed until 2019. . Some people discuss which companies are good for double-integration policies and which companies are unfavorable. From the perspective of macro-level transformation, it is beneficial to all Chinese auto companies, but in different ways. For companies like BYD or new-born electric vehicles, it is an incentive; for fuel-based vehicles, it is a force that forces them to make a transition and not to die in the future, so it is also for them. Benefits. Double-score requirements are delayed one year later, and some people think that this time difference will have an adverse impact on China's own brand cars. I don't think it will have much impact, because it won't play such a big role in such a short time. In addition, there is widespread concern in the industry that after 2020 fiscal subsidies are declining, the sales of electric vehicles will fall in a cliff-type manner. I believe this will not happen because the cost-effectiveness of electric vehicles is rapidly rising and it can basically be achieved very quickly. The extent to which fuel trucks compete is a very important point. The development of the electric vehicle industry will gradually be driven by the government and driven by the market. Therefore, after 2020, the double-credit policy will succeed fiscal subsidies—in fact, it is a non-subsidy supportive policy of the government—which will result in the sales of electric vehicles. Support, there will be no cliff-like decline. 3. In the new round of joint ventures, domestic companies will rise Since China's liberalization of the new energy vehicle joint venture policy restrictions, "whether or not a joint venture" has become one of the hot topics discussed in the industry, there are still some controversies. I think from a realistic point of view, since the country has introduced a new joint-venture policy on electric vehicles, we need to abandon the controversy and take it for granted that enterprises should make their own decisions and follow the existing policies. The government should, in principle, stop doing it again. Intervention. In the new joint venture process, there are indeed some problems, and the various companies may have very different purposes for joint ventures. Some are looking for a partner to keep the company alive; those with a capable, technical reserve may be able to expand their influence through joint ventures. In future joint ventures, the status and relationship between the Chinese and foreign parties may change with the first round of joint ventures. The status of Chinese enterprises will be different and their dominance will increase. In the past, the joint venture approach was more to foreign capital using Chinese capital to expand the market, and now Chinese capital may also use foreign capital in certain aspects. If Geely bought Volvo, it would be quite good. What we are worried about is whether, in the new wave of joint ventures, domestic companies will repeat the technological hollowing brought about by the previous wave of joint ventures. 4. The day of subsidy retreat is the time when foreign capital enters the market. The competition in China's electric vehicle market will be very fierce. At present, although we have considerable accumulation in electric vehicles, the threshold of electric vehicles is relatively low, unlike fuel vehicles, so it is not particularly difficult to catch up with the strength of foreign car companies. The investment funds announced by foreign car companies are all on the order of 10 billion euros/US dollar. On the other hand, the investment in domestic car companies is only a few hundred million dollars. Therefore, future competition cannot be ignored. The top priority now lies in the rapid transformation of major domestic companies such as FAW and Dongfeng Liberation. Once spotted, you must have the courage of a warrior to break his wrist. The fall of giants such as Nokia, Motorola and Ericsson have all occurred in recent years. The reason is that the transition is too slow. Some people also worry that in the competition between China and the rest of the world, domestic companies will initially take advantage, but the ultimate advantage will gradually become smaller and smaller, and even be defeated by foreign investment. Do domestic companies have the ability to compete with foreign companies? First of all, we can not ignore and underestimate the competition of foreign investment, because foreign car companies have accumulated a deep, strong brand influence, the momentum of the development of electric vehicles is fierce. However, electric vehicles in China started earlier and accumulated some technical capabilities. Such brands as Geely and BYD have gradually grown and expanded, and this trend has also continued in electric vehicles. In fact, in recent years, the status of independent brands of electric vehicles in China has also reached a certain height, including certain advantages in foreign countries. We hope this momentum can be maintained. Including domestically-made buses, which are now exported to developed countries such as the United Kingdom, that is to say, they have been recognized internationally. They have gradually stood firm and have continued to develop. To a certain extent, the starting point for China's electric vehicles and international countermeasures is much stronger than that of fuel vehicles after they joined the WTO. 5. Access to electric vehicles needs to be liberalized, allowing more new carmakers to enter China has upgraded its electric vehicle to a national strategy. Investors and new entrants have seen opportunities and hopes and have increased their confidence. They think that the direction pointed out by the government is correct. There are development prospects, rich money, and room for growth. It's not wrong to actively invest in it. However, our government’s concept of management of production access for electric vehicles has not yet changed. I feel that this is a catch-all and we need to quickly stop the car. Although the industry is not yet mature, the initial stage is the trial and error process. It does not depend on the government to determine that several companies can succeed, because no one can know who can succeed. Instead, they rely on more people to participate in trial and error with real money. If they fail, it is equal to sending a response to the society. This road is impassable. You must be careful—this is his contribution. If success is achieved in one area, but it is not developed, it can be transferred to others as a technological element - this is also a contribution. Therefore, at this time, the government should welcome the entry of enterprises and welcome them to try and correct the industry. After the industry has reached a certain stage of development, it will surely start shuffling. Under the Ebb Tide, a number of companies will eventually come to the fore. China's Internet development has experienced such a process and eventually formed the market pattern of BAT. This process is not recognized by the government. The development of electric vehicles in China is also bound to experience such a development process. Therefore, there is no need to restrict excessive production access enterprises in the initial stage of development, and more new construction vehicle forces should be allowed to enter. Now that the joint-venture restrictions in the field of electric vehicles have been liberalized, the restrictions on domestic new-build vehicles still exist. This is unfair to new entrants who are using real money and silver in the field of electric vehicles. Therefore, our current management philosophy for electric vehicles must change. The next generation of cars will be computers on wheels, and the growth force will be those with destructive advantages. At present, the threshold for building electric vehicles has been reduced, and the future differentiation competition will focus on information technology, driverless technology and car networking. At this time, new entrants, especially those Internet companies, should be welcomed to build cars and encourage cross-border integration and development. Construction nails,Galvanized iron nails,Iron nail suppliers,Iron nails wholesale,Custom size iron nails Anping Honglin Wire Mesh Co.,Ltd , https://www.honglingwirenetting.com